Is it aliens? Three questions to evaluate UFO claims

There are few things more profound than the question of whether or
not we are alone in the universe. If we were to discover microbes floating around Venus, find signs of past life on Mars, or receive a radio signal from intelligent beings, the course of human history would be forever changed.

The search for life requires that we keep an open mind. With the U.S. government now publicly discussing UFOs — unidentified aerial phenomena, in modern parlance — and confirming the authenticity of genuinely strange videos, it’s easy to get swept away by thoughts of flying saucers and little green men.

We must also be cautious and apply scientific scrutiny to fantastical
news. But how? While no one guide can unpack the specifics of every UFO
sighting, here are three questions you can ask yourself to judge
extraordinary claims that may lack extraordinary evidence.

Does the UFO sighting violate our understanding of physics?

Many observations of UFOs require them to break the laws of physics
as we know them, by either moving extremely fast and suddenly or by not
showing up on radar or other sensors.

Humanity knows the laws of physics very well. We use physics to launch space missions, take pictures of black holes, and map the universe in 3D.

Science is an ongoing process, so it’s possible that we could
discover something that profoundly reshapes our understanding of the
cosmos. But when evaluating UFO claims, it’s important to consider
whether other explanations are more likely.

Does it require a large conspiracy involving aliens?

Conspiracies are hard.
The larger the conspiracy, the more points of failure it has, and the
harder it is to keep secret. Even groups who are good at keeping secrets
like the CIA run the risk of rogue individuals exposing them, as was
the case in Edward Snowden’s disclosure of classified information.

This is all the more difficult for conspiracies that cross political,
geographic, and cultural boundaries that would normally inhibit
cooperation.

If extraterrestrials visit Earth, would they prefer one nation over
another? The fact that we don’t see individual nations rushing to share
hard data on UFOs suggests that there may be few credible sources to be
found.

Is there a simpler explanation?

Occam’s Razor is the scientific and philosophical principle that says
simpler explanations are more likely than complex ones. It can be
applied to UFO sightings: is there an explanation that does not break
the laws of physics, or that does not require a perfectly executed
conspiracy?

As exciting as UFO sightings might seem, there are often simpler
explanations like classified activity, human error, optical illusions,
and computer glitches. The human brain is drawn to novelty, but it’s
important to consider all possibilities — even the boring ones.