Analysis | The pandemic did what the anti-vax movement couldn’t: Powered skepticism of vaccine rules

Until about two years ago.

In retrospect, we should have anticipated how the country would respond to the broad availability of a vaccine effective at reducing coronavirus infection and largely preventing worst-case health scenarios. The initial government response, which focused on masking and limits on person-to-person interactions, was quickly undermined by President Donald Trump’s desire to quickly return the country to normal economic activity, his eye on his 2020 reelection bid.

But it was also easier for Trump, a fundamentally anti-establishment politician, to cast doubt on experts than to elevate them. So millions of Americans, particularly Republicans, developed skepticism about official recommendations that carried over into the wide-scale vaccination effort that began at the end of 2020.

Over the course of the past year, the pool of unvaccinated Americans has increasingly consisted of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Republicans are less likely to get any dose of a vaccine and are less likely to say they’ll get a booster dose even if already vaccinated. Often, that hesitancy has been framed as being in opposition to perceived mandates — orders from the establishment that they receive a dose. That relatively few Americans are subject to an actual mandate has little effect on that perception, one that even Trump — always eager to play to the base — has amplified.

The challenge to all of this is demonstrated in polling released this week by YouGov, conducted on behalf of the Economist. Asked if schools should be allowed to mandate vaccines for students — any vaccines, that is, not just coronavirus ones — a plurality of Americans said no. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans held that position, even more than the percentage of those who haven’t been fully vaccinated.

What’s particularly remarkable about this is how it overlaps with one of the frequent arguments for efforts to encourage vaccination. Often, those who object to rules mandating either vaccination or frequent testing have been reminded that vaccination requirements are common in other contexts. The actual coronavirus vaccine mandate that applied to military members, for example, sat alongside a number of other required vaccines for recruits, ones that were probably barely noticed by those seeking to enlist. When states implemented coronavirus-related mandates for schools, it was noted that schools have long mandated vaccines before enrollment.

What this poll appears to show is that America has not become broadly supportive of vaccine mandates, recognizing where they might already apply, but instead has become skeptical of previous mandates where they exist. Granted, we don’t have data on how this has changed over time; it may be the case that being informed about the existence of mandates a decade ago would have met with similar skepticism. But given that Republicans are so much less supportive of the idea reinforces that this overlaps with the politics and understanding of the moment.

This poll result attracted some substantial attention when shared by the Economist’s G. Elliott Morris on Twitter. But, as it turns out, it wasn’t the end of the research. Morris on Thursday shared a follow-up survey conducted by YouGov.

It made two important changes. First, it changed the word “mandate” for “required to,” eliding some of the associations that probably accompany the former term by now. Second, it differentiated between different vaccines. Views of the requirement for the MMR vaccine (preventing measles, mumps and rubella) were separated from views of the coronavirus vaccine or a generic vaccine for “infectious diseases.”

The upshot? Most Americans remain supportive of MMR vaccine requirements and even for one targeting “infectious diseases.” Except, it seems, the infectious one that’s still killing thousands of people a day at the moment.

Here again you can see the partisan divide — but also the ongoing partisan difference.

Republicans are broadly supportive of the long-standing MMR requirement. Identifying it specifically and casting it not as a mandate probably contributed to the difference from the results in the first survey. But the politics of the coronavirus vaccine are also apparent: Only a quarter of Republicans support a requirement for those vaccines where available.

Part of this certainly derives from the reduced likelihood of negative effects from the coronavirus on younger people. The virus, thus far, has been far less deadly for young people than older ones. But, then, the odds of dying from measles, mumps or rubella are also low. Part of the intent of the requirement is to reduce the likelihood of broad spread by increasing community immunity.

That, of course, is at the heart of this question. What the coronavirus pandemic has done is increase the salience of the question of how much Americans owe to one another. This has long been an undercurrent in our politics, but being directly asked to take a step to keep everyone safe has made this tension obvious.

For years, vaccine opponents sought to unwind mandates out of misguided concern about the safety of vaccines. Turns out, all they needed to gain ground was a deadly international pandemic in which vaccines could make a real difference — leading people in positions of authority to do what they could to ensure as much vaccination as possible.

Making government advocacy explicit seems to have reduced support for government advocacy.