How the racist ‘white replacement’ conspiracy theory that inspired the Buffalo killer has found an audience in Canada

In the shadowy chat rooms of white supremacist groups, the logic can be as contorted as it is ugly.

Following the massacre of 10 Black Americans this past week in Buffalo, N.Y., anonymous users were quick to start sharing unfounded ideas about how the killings might actually be an act of racism against white people.

They discussed the tragedy as a “false flag” event — concocted to justify more pushback against white supremacy by politicians and the vaguely-defined “elite.”

Some referenced MK-Ultra, an illegal CIA experiment in mind control that took place from 1953 to 1973, suggesting, without any shred of truth, that the Buffalo massacre was staged to turn populations against white people like the shooter.

“They will use it to take away your guns. They will do anything,” one post in the group reads. “The world is a very dangerous place right now.”

These conversations took place, it should be noted, in Canadian chat rooms with between 7,000 to 12,000 users — filled with the same type of vile, hate-filled arguments that appear to have motivated the shooter in Buffalo.

If his own writings are to be believed, the perpetrator of the Buffalo killings was influenced by the conspiracy theory called “white replacement,” or “Great Replacement Theory,” which purports that a shadowy elite (often portrayed as having Jewish leaders) is orchestrating the replacement of white populations in white majority countries by intentionally opening the floodgates of immigration and promoting lower birth rates for white people. Believers in this theory erroneously come to see non-white immigrants as a serious and imminent threat to white people’s survival.

Of course, there was no threat to white people here.

The 10 Black victims killed by an 18-year-old in Buffalo were Pearly Young, Ruth Whitfield, Margus Morrison, Andre Mackneil, Aaron Salter, Geraldine Talley, Kat Massey, Roberta Drury, Heyward Patterson and Celestine Chaney.

They were grocery shopping at Tops supermarket on a Saturday, a place that has been described as a community hub for a Black neighbourhood of Buffalo, somewhere neighbours would stop to chat and catch up with one another while buying produce and snacks for the week. The shooter drove an hour to this particular Tops in this particular Black neighbourhood, after publishing a racist “manifesto” that resembled that of the Christchurch, New Zealand mosque killer of 2019. Police said there’s little doubt the shooting in Buffalo was a targeted, racist attack.

U.S. President Joe Biden, speaking from Buffalo this week, called white supremacy a “poison” in America, that has already spread too far.

And while the massacre has drawn attention to the theory in the U.S., including the ways in which it seeps into mainstream newscasts and speeches by elected politicians, a review of some of Canada’s online far-right communities reveals the theory is also being discussed by far-right groups in this country. In the immediate aftermath of the massacre, some people posted in Canadian-branded online groups defending the theory of white replacement, and suggesting with no evidence that the tragedy in Buffalo was all part of the “white replacement” plan.

Last year, the anti-violent extremism group Moonshot published a report on how internet users are finding extremist content, and found that 25,000 Canadians had searched for information about the “Great Replacement Theory” from February 2019 to March 2020, raising concerns that these kinds of theories might be finding traction, at least in some circles.

Experts say that the central idea behind the theory — that non-white people pose a threat to white majority populations — has been the basis of racist movements at least as far back as Nazi Germany, and that in Canada the theory undergirds the most extreme and racist wings of the other conspiracy theories and political ideas with which it interacts.

The fact that it can present as an overt conspiracy theory on its own, or as part of other far-right communities, makes it both pervasive and difficult to pin down.

Evan Balgord, Anti-Hate Network executive director, says this theory is the basis for the brand of far-right, anti-immigration sentiment that emerged in Canada between about 2015 and 2017 with anti-Islam protests such as those held by the group La Meute in Quebec, and demonstrations by the group Soldiers of Odin in British Columbia. The most infamous example of far-right hate from this period took place in January 2017, when a shooter killed six people and injured 19 at a mosque in Quebec City, fuelled by anti-Muslim beliefs.

“This is the same conspiracy theory that went into the birth of our far-right movement here in Canada, the most recent iteration of it,” Balgord said. “That came from the Islamophobia industry. We had 9/11. We had an influx of Muslim people fleeing horrible situations that came to Europe. And then we had Trump demonizing Muslims and then all of that comes together, and we have a new far right movement here in Canada that took to the streets saying that Muslims are going to take over the country … and that the goal is an Islamic takeover and Sharia law in Canada.”

In the case of COVID-19 vaccines for example, some communities of conspiracy theories claim the vaccines have been developed by pharmaceutical companies for ulterior motives. Communities preoccupied with white-replacement theory add the interpretation that vaccines have been specifically engineered to eliminate white people. In the case of the “Freedom Convoy” protests, which began as a movement protesting vaccine mandates for cross-border truckers, white-replacement theorists falsely argued the government was trying to take away the livelihoods of white truckers so that they could be replaced with immigrants.

One post reads, “They want a more compliant people, with no attachment to these lands. … If they could, they would outlaw White men from owning trucks.”

Although white replacement theorists often cite connections white Canadians have to the land, they seldom reference First Nations, Inuit and Métis people who lived in Canada first.

Of course, white replacement theory is not espoused by everyone who believes in other conspiracy theories, supports the Freedom Convoy, or is opposed to getting a COVID-19 vaccine. Instead, it’s what Balgord calls a “prototypical” conspiracy theory — a long-standing theory that spins into many different kinds of myths, and can therefore germinate in different communities and radicalize some of the people in them.

Eric Kaufmann, a Canadian professor of politics at Birkbeck College, University of London, has studied and written about the political identity of white majority populations. He said the conspiracy theory of white replacement has the ability to radicalize people and potentially motivate violence, but that identifying where the conspiracy theory begins can be murky.

“It’s kind of important, I think, to distinguish the view that certain changes are occurring from the (conspiracy theory),” he told the Star. “Discussing the demographic reality of what’s occurring is not necessarily a radical thing, but attributing agency to Jews or even the left is different.”

In Canada as well as the U.S., demographics are shifting such that the category we call “white” is becoming a smaller proportion of the population. Statistics Canada, for example, predicts that in Toronto 63 per cent of the population will be from a visible minority community by 2031. Polling shows that there is at least some uneasiness about that demographic change in Canada, with 39 per cent of respondents to a 2021 Angus Reid poll saying immigration has had a net negative effect on Canada.

Kaufmann thinks taboos around addressing those anxieties by mainstream political parties could lead to discontent and possibly push people toward more extreme forms of anti-immigrant belief, like white replacement theory.

“With this stuff, if you’re really attached to a status quo or to group and a particular golden age, if that becomes the centre of your universe and you get worked up into a lather then you can become a radical,” he said.

In the U.S., for example, Kaufmann said, he places some blame at the feet of commentators such as Tucker Carlson on Fox News for attributing demographic shifts to conspiracies engineered by the Democrats or the World Economic Forum, notions that Kaufmann thinks could guide viewers into conspiratorial thinking about white replacement.

It’s more common in the U.S. than in Canada for mainstream politicians to talk about restricting immigration as a policy goal, as exemplified by former president Donald Trump’s border wall plan. By contrast, mainstream parties in Canada would rarely, if ever, suggest immigration restrictions, Kaufmann said.

While Kaufmann doesn’t see a large platform for those ideas in Canada currently, the closest being the anti-immigration sentiment espoused by Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party of Canada, he thinks such a platform could emerge.

“I wouldn’t predict any breakthrough for the People’s Party. But what I would say is if the Tories got in and didn’t address any of these issues, that would then start to open up discontent that the parties could exploit,” Kaufman said.

At a Conservative leadership debate last week, four of the six contenders for leader said they support increases in immigration, while Leslyn Lewis and Roman Baber were noncommittal.

Milan Obaidi, an associate professor of culture and community psychology specializing in extremism at the University of Oslo, said the tone of politicians may be important when it comes to whether or not white replacement theory gains steam.

“If certain ideas are being expressed in everyday life, then certainly individuals will seek them in online forums, and those ideas are going to be amplified,” Obaidi said. “I think people who are being radicalized are exposed to angst and anxiety about being replaced (offline) and then they go to online forums and echo chambers that amplify this.”

Compared to European countries and the U.S., Obaidi said he has not observed white replacement theory occupying as prominent a role in Canada, which on the face of it, is surprising, considering Canada’s changing demographics.

“In general, from our research in social psychology, whenever the number of certain minorities increases, that often leads to a reaction among the majority,” he said. “And what is surprising to me is that Canada is very multicultural but I don’t see this idea (of white replacement) being very much touted in the Canadian (context).”

The emphasis on multiculturalism as an asset rather than a threat in Canada by members of all political parties likely contributes to a national discourse in which grievances about immigration do not play as prominent a role as they do elsewhere, Obaidi said.

Balgord said that, where discontent with immigration exists in Canada, he thinks Canadians can and should increase their understanding about what a nostalgic national identity means in this country, and what they want the national identity to be going forward.

“When people talk about Canadian identity in the past, what did we do? Well, we genocided the hell out of Indigenous peoples and then we stole a bunch of land. And now there’s elements of us who pretend that was nation building,” he said. “I don’t understand that because we can be anything we want to be. Why do we need to exclude people from this new project?”

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