POLITICO Playbook: A guns deal looks imminent- POLITICO
INCOMING — We could have the framework of a Senate deal on gun reform announced as soon as today, CNN’s Dana Bash and Manu Raju report. It would just be an agreement in principle from the clutch of Senate negotiators, without many details yet, but such an announcement would still represent a breakthrough on an issue where progress has eluded lawmakers for years. The four lead negotiators have been talking all weekend, and are hoping to nail down the backing of 10 Republicans before announcing.
What’s in: changes to the background check system, money to incentivize state-level “red flag” laws, mental health funding, school security funding and more.
What’s out: raising the age to purchase semiautomatic weapons to 21, an assault weapons ban and (of course) any more far-ranging gun restrictions. More from Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine
ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Votes are still being counted from Saturday’s special primary election for Alaska’s at-large House seat, but at least three of the four candidates advancing to the general look set: SARAH PALIN, NICK BEGICH III and AL GROSS. Begich is the conservative Republican scion of a famous Democratic family; Gross is the independent who ran for the Democrats in the 2020 Senate race but has since run afoul of the state party. (You know who Palin is, of course.) Palin so far has pulled in a fairly commanding 30% in a 48-person field, though the ranked-choice general-election structure makes predictions difficult.
Democrat MARY PELTOLA is in fourth place as of now, with Republican TARA SWEENEY and independent SANTA CLAUS (not a typo) not far behind. In Alaska’s complex new election setup this year, the top four will advance to an August race to fill the remainder of the late Rep. DON YOUNG’s seat. That same day will mark the primary for the November election for a full term. The latest from the Anchorage Daily News","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/06/11/palin-begich-gross-and-peltola-are-early-frontrunners-in-alaskas-special-us-house-primary/","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f80002","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f80003","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>The latest from the Anchorage Daily News … A great feature preview last week from WaPo’s Dan Zak","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/06/09/alaska-is-having-wildest-election-2022/","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f80004","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f80005","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>A great feature preview last week from WaPo’s Dan Zak, worth your time
2024 WATCH, DEM EDITION — Nebraska, New York and Democrats Abroad are out of the running for an early Democratic presidential nominating spot in 2024, while 17 states and territories remain in contention, Elena Schneider reports. The DNC axed the Empire State over cost, size, partisanship and urban concentration. Nebraska and Democrats Abroad got the boot for logistical reasons. Next up: The other 17 will pitch a DNC committee later this month.
2024 WATCH, GOP EDITION — DONALD TRUMP may be teasing a comeback bid, but he hasn’t scared others off: No fewer than 15 Republicans are testing the waters for a 2024 presidential campaign, WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey and Isaac Stanley-Becker report in a big look at the state of the (shadow) field. Pence is eyeing South Carolina and the DEVOS family. Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS will use his reelection margin as a metric. MIKE POMPEO contacted CHARLIE KIRK. Some donors and activists are urging the party to move on from Trump. Yet he still remains the frontrunner for now.
Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), an erstwhile Trump competitor and current Trump ally, doesn’t sound worried: “The day that Trump makes it clear he’s going to run — it would be a mountain to climb to beat him … If it’s a policy election, he’s in good shape. It’s his primary to lose.”
POTUS ABROAD — A controversial trip by President JOE BIDEN to Saudi Arabia will be announced as soon as Monday, WSJ’s Vivian Salama scooped, as one leg on a Middle East expedition that will also include Israel. The much-ballyhooed meeting with authoritarian Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN is currently on the agenda, she reports. Biden told reporters earlier Saturday that he hadn’t made a decision yet about Saudi Arabia, but that any trip there would encompass more than just energy discussions, per Bloomberg. (The pressure to lower gas prices via more Saudi oil output is, of course, a major piece of the relationship.)
Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. You can email me here, or drop a line to the rest of the team: Rachael Bade","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:rbade@politico.com","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f90000","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f90001","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:edaniels@politico.com","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f90002","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f90003","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:rlizza@politico.com","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f90004","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe82f90005","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Ryan Lizza.
SUNDAY BEST …
— Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) on what Monday’s Jan. 6 committee hearing will comprise, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “Trump was told by multiple people — it should have been abundantly clear — that there was no evidence that showed the election was stolen, and he ignored that. And so the hearing that we’re going to have on Monday is really focusing on a deep dive in that.”
— Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) on whether the committee can prove that Trump knew he lost the 2020 election as he tried to overturn it, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I think we can prove to any reasonable, open-minded person that Donald Trump absolutely knew, because he was surrounded by lawyers, including the attorney general of the United States, WILLIAM BARR, telling him in no uncertain terms, in terms that Donald Trump could understand: This is B.S.”
— Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) on ABC’s “This Week”: “We will show the evidence that we have that members of Congress were seeking pardons.”
— Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) on her calls for far-right members of Congress to answer whether they requested pardons, on “State of the Union”: “When you don’t know which of your colleagues were part of a potential conspiracy, then we need to find out. And, frankly, from a lot of the behavior that we have seen, both in committee, inside the workings of the House, I believe that every member of Congress should be able to answer that question.”
Ocasio-Cortez also wouldn’t commit to backing Biden in 2024: “We will cross that bridge when we get to it.”
— Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) on the threat to Justice BRETT KAVANAUGH and legislation to protect justices’ families, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I do think we need to take stronger action to make sure that our federal judiciary is safe because that’s part of making sure our democracy is safe.” More from David Cohen
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
8 THINGS YOU SHOULD BE FOLLOWING
1. THE BIG JAN. 6 QUESTION: Will (and should, and can) Trump be criminally charged and prosecuted? Experts tell NYT’s Peter Baker and Katie Benner that the House Jan. 6 committee’s first hearing last week “offered the makings of a credible criminal case for conspiracy to commit fraud or obstruction of the work of Congress,” though not everyone sees it happening. The volume of the conversation around charging Trump — and its massive impact — will put pressure on A.G. MERRICK GARLAND’s decision. NBC’s Ken Dilanian reports that “there have been conversations inside the Justice Department about the far-reaching implications of pursuing a case against Trump, should it come to that.”
DANIEL GOLDMAN weighs in","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://twitter.com/danielsgoldman/status/1535962811570040833","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe83030000","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe83030001","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>DANIEL GOLDMAN weighs in: “In my view, the criminal case is stronger against Trump for conspiring to impair the lawful function of govt — which focuses on the 7-part plan to overturn the election — than obstructing Congress or seditious conspiracy, both of which center on January 6.”
More Jan. 6 reading: Betsy Woodruff Swan scoops the memo that GREG JACOB wrote for then-VP MIKE PENCE laying out why he had to certify the 2020 election, ahead of Jacob’s expected public testimony this week. Meanwhile, RUDY GIULIANI on Saturday proffered conspiracy theories about the insurrection and said the Democratic Party “needs to be destroyed at the top, because it’s rotting at the top,” per Insider.
2. 2022 WATCH: Not so fast on the grand visions of a blockbuster November for the House GOP, says NRCC Chair TOM EMMER (R-Minn.). WaPo’s Paul Kane reports that Emmer, while confident Republicans will flip the chamber, is trying to lower expectations for how big their majority might be. 2022 won’t be 1994 due in part to Democrats’ slim margins, along with hyper-polarization, geographic self-sorting and gerrymandering that have slashed the number of competitive districts. Kane paints Emmer as a student of political history, neither flashy nor super detailed, who’s realistic about what’s achievable.
3. THE NEW GOP: WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Marianna Sotomayor go deep on Rep. TOM RICE (R-S.C.), who’s standing firm on his Trump impeachment vote — and will face the ultimate political test in a primary Tuesday. In that contest, he’s got “a fighting chance” to win or go to a runoff, in part because Trump hasn’t spent much money in the state to take him out. And Rice is still fired up about the former president, even against the winds of his party: “It’s one of the reasons I want to fight as hard as I’m fighting, to prove that we’re not just about loyalty to a would-be tyrant.”
Meanwhile, the Nevada secretary of state primary this week could elevate another conspiracy theorist election denier to the GOP nomination, as in Michigan and elsewhere: KENNY MARCHANT is seeking to claim the mantle, while competitor KRISTOPHER DAHIR accepts the 2020 results, AP’s Christina Cassidy and Scott Sonner report.
4. SATURDAY’S MAIN EVENTS: Hundreds of March for Our Lives rallies turned out supporters of gun restrictions across the country, calling for change in Washington and elsewhere in the wake of recent mass shootings. More from NBC","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/march-lives-protests-gun-violence-sweep-nation-hundreds-mass-shootings-rcna33116","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe8303000c","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe8303000d","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>More from NBC … Police arrested 31 members of the white supremacist Patriot Fund near an LGBT pride event in Idaho on suspicion of conspiracy to riot. More from the Idaho Statesman","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/northwest/idaho/article262430397.html","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe8303000e","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe8303000f","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>More from the Idaho Statesman
5. WHAT TO READ OVER SUNDAY BRUNCH: WaPo’s Stephanie McCrummen has a fascinating feature about a Rome, Ga., woman named ANGELA RUBINO and the future of the MAGA movement: “Suspicious of almost everything, trusting of almost nothing, believing in almost no one other than those who share her unease, she has in many ways become a citizen of a parallel America — not just red America, but another America entirely, one she believes to be awash in domestic enemies, stolen elections, immigrant invaders, sexual predators, the machinations of a global elite and other fresh nightmares revealed by the minute on her social media scrolls. She is known online as ‘Burnitdown.’”
6. INFLATION NATION: It’s official: Average gas prices in the U.S. crossed the $5-a-gallon threshold Saturday, with no expectation of a retreat anytime soon, per NPR. The other area where Americans are most immediately feeling sticker shock — food — doesn’t show signs of getting better, either. WSJ’s Jaewon Kang and Annie Gasparro report that major suppliers and restaurants are expecting to continue cranking prices higher due to their own cost increases.
7. SCOTUS WATCH: If the Supreme Court’s conservative majority, as expected, strikes down the EPA’s efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, the ruling could have a major impact well beyond the government’s ability to fight climate change. It could undermine federal regulatory power writ large, “unraveling much of the regulatory state as it has existed since the New Deal,” report Alex Guillén and Sarah Owermohle this morning. Some of the other federal rules that could be affected","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/12/rules-at-risk-00038639","_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe83050006","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000181-58ba-dc72-a7c1-febe83050007","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Some of the other federal rules that could be affected
8. HISTORY LESSON: NYT’s Carol Rosenberg obtained the Pentagon’s secret photographic documentation of the first prisoners arriving at Guantánamo Bay in 2002, which have never been made public before. The images are quite striking.
LATEST UKRAINE DEVELOPMENTS
— Russia is getting closer to encircling Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk’s leader warned today, per the NYT. And the U.S. now expects Moscow to conquer all of Luhansk within weeks, a major milestone in its invasion, WaPo’s Dan Lamothe and Claire Parker report. But Ukraine still retains control of a chemical plant in Sievierodonetsk that’s housing hundreds of civilians, per Reuters.
—Russia is using more lethal weaponry, in attacks that could yield mass casualties from the likes of Kh-22 missiles and flamethrowers, Ukraine and the U.K. said Saturday, per the AP.
— It would be very difficult for the U.S. and other Western countries holding frozen Russian assets to get Russia to pay reparations for Ukraine to rebuild, WSJ’s Courtney McBride reports.
OUT AND ABOUT — Warner Bros. Discovery and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute co-hosted a screening of HBO Max’s “Father of the Bride” on Friday at the Motion Picture Association. The event included a fireside chat on the film and the state of Hollywood for Latino content creators, moderated by CNN en Español’s Maria Santana, featuring the film’s director Gaz Alazraki and producers Paul Perez and Jeremy Kleiner. SPOTTED:Alexa Verveer, Marco Davis, Antonio Tijerino, Brent Wilkes, Amy Hinojosa, Marla Bilonick and Maria Cardona.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) and Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) … NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown … Mayra Macías … Dag Vega of BCW Global … Bloomberg’s Kevin Sheekey … Alex Castellanos of Purple Strategies … Matt Mowers … Rabbi Levi Shemtov … U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. for Management and Reform Chris Lu … Lilia Dashevsky … Michael Finnegan of Atlantic Media … Joyce Kazadi … Eli Zupnick … Majority Group’s Dan Archer … Luis Miranda … Matt Wolking … former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham … Peter Schechter … Mort Rosenblum (78) … Coco Pannell
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