Most Republicans Believe Midterms Were ‘Free And Fair,’ Poll Finds As Fraud Fears Fall Flat
Topline
A small majority of Republican voters believe the midterm elections were “free and fair,” a new Morning Consult poll finds—a significant jump from before Election Day—as the aftermath of the election has so far been largely devoid of the voter fraud claims that plagued the 2020 race, with even “election denier” candidates primarily conceding defeat rather than trying to fight their losses.
Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, who conceded his loss after … [+]
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Key Facts
A 52% majority of registered GOP voters say the midterms were “definitely” or “probably” free and fair, the poll, conducted November 10-12, found.
That marks a record high for Republican respondents’ trust in the midterms since Morning Consult began polling the question in January 2021, the pollster reported, and is up from 42% who predicted the midterms would be free and fair when last asked on November 4.
Democrats still had significantly more trust in the election results, with 89% believing them to be above board.
Republican men were notably more likely to accept the results than women (60% saying the midterms were free and fair versus 44% of women), which Morning Consult notes has been a consistent trend throughout its polling on this question.
Contra
While Republicans have a growing amount of faith in the midterm results, they’re still not satisfied with the country’s elections overall. Only 46% of Republicans reported having “some” or “a lot of” trust in the U.S. election system overall after the midterms, which is actually down from 48% who said the same the week before.
Key Background
The midterm elections have so far proceeded largely without any major disruptions or challenges to the results, despite fears after former President Donald Trump and his allies made widespread baseless claims of voter fraud following the 2020 election. Trump pushed some unfounded conspiracy theories regarding ballots in such places as Maricopa County, Arizona; Michigan and Pennsylvania, but there have so far been no widespread protests from GOP voters or major attempts to challenge the results. While a significant number of races had GOP candidates that continue to deny the results of the 2020 election—many of whom ultimately lost—those candidates largely haven’t challenged their own results. After drawing widespread attention as “election deniers” and raising fears about how they’d handle their losses, Republicans like Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, Michigan attorney general candidate Matt DePerno and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon have all conceded their races, while others haven’t outright conceded but also haven’t alleged fraud or attempted to overturn the vote count.
What To Watch For
Whether any challenges will still be forthcoming from GOP candidates who’ve lost their races. Kristina Karamo, who lost the Michigan secretary of state race by a 14-point margin, has still not conceded her race and told supporters “there is more to come,” for instance, and Arizona secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem referred to the Arizona Senate results on Twitter as “#FakeNews lies.” The Associated Press projected Monday night that election denier Kari Lake lost the Arizona gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs, after Lake had continually pushed voter fraud claims about 2020 and refused to explicitly state she’d accept the results of her race if she lost. It’s so far unclear if Lake will challenge the results of her race; as of Tuesday morning the candidate had only said on Twitter, “Arizonans know BS when they see it.”
Tangent
The Morning Consult poll also found surging support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who’s gained attention as the GOP’s next standard-bearer and potential presidential candidate after a landslide midterms win—while Trump, by contrast, has seen his star fade as he’s gotten blame for the Republican Party’s losses. The poll found 33% of potential GOP primary voters now say they’d vote for DeSantis over Trump or another candidate, which marks a record high for the governor and is up from 26% before the midterms. A 47% plurality would still support Trump, which is down from 48% before the midterms and 57% who supported the ex-president in August.
Further Reading
Despite the GOP’s Underperformance, Its Voters Increasingly See the Midterm Elections as ‘Free and Fair’ (Morning Consult)
Trump’s election conspiracy boosters largely accept their own defeats (Politico)
Fact Check: Trump Asserts Baseless Midterm Election Fraud Claims In Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania (Forbes)
Election officials feared the worst. Here’s why baseless claims haven’t fueled chaos (NPR)
