Analysis | A retrospective on the right’s Paul Pelosi conspiracy theories

Many of these theories were lodged after publicly available evidence undermined them. Some were seeded by errant initial reporting and confusion, but were still promoted even after the record had been corrected. When they didn’t contradict the available evidence, they were often extraordinarily speculative. When they weren’t stated as fact, they were extremely suggestive.

A Fox News guest even appeared on air Friday afternoon, nearly three hours after the video’s release, and proceeded to question whether there was a break-in. Footage of the break-in was playing as he spoke; he said he hadn’t seen the video.

Many of the purveyors of such theories called for the release of this footage (which is below, but which we can’t recommend watching). Now that the video’s out, it’s worth remembering what such figures suggested it might show — but doesn’t.

That this was a lovers’ quarrel/that DePape was a male prostitute

The video clearly shows a man breaking into the house. But an array of figures suggested otherwise this fall:

• Elon Musk, while linking to a website that labeled the attack “a dispute with a male prostitute”: “There is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye.” (Musk deleted the tweet.)
• Dinesh D’Souza: “Why was the assailant in his underpants?” (He wasn’t; this notion was based on reporting that was corrected shortly after it was published, two days before D’Souza’s comments.) “My conclusion? This guy, the assailant, is either a sexual partner or a male prostitute, and this is a sexual rendezvous that went sideways.”
• Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.): “That moment you realize the nudist hippie male prostitute LSD guy was the reason your husband didn’t make it to your fundraiser.” (Deleted.)
• Donald Trump Jr.: Promoted a cartoon image that depicted a sex act between two men, one of whom was holding a hammer while saying, “Um, ah, yes officer … I’m being attacked!” (The post was later deleted.)
• Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.): Shared a photo of a group of young men holding oversized hammers next to a gay pride flag and added, “LOL.” (Deleted.)
• One American News: “No one should be assaulted in their own home, whether the attacker was actually invited over for some spirited horse play that turned into a lovers’ quarrel or not.”
• Conservative pundit Jesse Kelly: “It is weird how Paul Pelosi got hammered — got hit with a hammer. Um. The guy apparently was known to Paul. Remember? … I’m sure he was dressed in Trump gear when he did it. Oh, maybe he wasn’t dressed at all, though. How about that?”

That DePape was his friend

Related to the above, this was based on a misreading of the police report; while some read it to mean Pelosi called DePape his “friend,” the district attorney said it was DePape who referred to Pelosi as a “friend.” Police reporting stated that Pelosi twice said he didn’t know DePape. And even if Pelosi had called the man a friend at some point during the break-in, it could easily have been understood as an effort to defuse the situation.

• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.): “… Paul Pelosi’s friend attacking him with a hammer.”
• D’Souza: “Paul Pelosi KNEW his attacker and NAMED him in his 911 call. Media accounts are suppressing this key fact.”

That the attack was a false flag/didn’t happen

• OAN: “This whole thing could be a false flag of sorts, staged if you will. I mean, the midterms are just weeks away and the Dems know they’re going to get hammered.”
• OAN: “I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s hidden from public spotlight for a very long time. Just long enough for his injuries — his injuries, purported injuries — to go away.”

That there was a third person who opened the door

This notion was based on unclear initial reporting, but was promoted long after that reporting had been clarified.

• Fox News host Tucker Carlson: “Was there a third person at the home? We don’t know, but it’s not crazy to assume there was. … [The door was] opened by whom? Common sense suggests it probably couldn’t have been Pelosi or Pappy who opened it. They were locked in a life-or-death drama, a struggle over a hammer.”
• Fox News host Brian Kilmeade: “Was the surveillance system on? Did they even have a security system? How did they get in? Was there a third — all of this is because no one would answer basic questions.”

That the broken glass outside suggested it might not be a break-in

DePape himself had admitted to breaking in, according to the police report. Still, the following figures went on to make the below comments:

• Donald Trump: “The glass it seems was broken from the inside to the out, so it wasn’t a break-in; it was a breakout. I don’t know, you hear the same things I do.”
• Fox News host Jesse Watters: “Now, there was glass broken at the rear door. We’ve seen those photos. But there looks like there’s glass on both sides, inside and out, and FBI sources are telling ‘Primetime’ that’s odd.”
• Far-right internet commentator Mike Cernovich: “When glass breaks, can you tell the difference between whether it was broken from the outside of the window vs inside the house?”