What are 15-minute cities and how did they ignite a conspiracy theory?

Conspiracy theorists have moved on from rumours about microchips in COVID-19 vaccines and the potential dangers of 5G mobile phone towers to a previously uncontroversial urban planning principle.

The 15-minute city has caught on around the world – including in many Australian municipalities – but opposition to the idea has also caught hold among fringe groups. People suspicious of the planning concept are battling against it in forums from Britain’s House of Commons to a council meeting in Melbourne.

So, why the concern? And what is a 15-minute city?

What’s a 15-minute city?

A 15-minute city is a principle that everything you need should be within 15 minutes’ walk or public transport of your home – schools, shops, libraries, parks, transport, job opportunities, healthcare and so on. The idea is that a network of 15-minute cities provides inhabitants with easy access to everything they need.

If you live in a city, how long does it take you to get to a supermarket? What about a pharmacy or a school? For adherents of the 15-minute-city concept, the answer to all those questions should be “less than 15 minutes”.

The actual timeframe is slightly fluid: 15-minute cities are also referred to, in urban planning speak, as 20-minute cities or neighbourhoods and Copenhagen trumped everyone with a “Five Minutes to Everything” model.

Spanish urban planner Professor Carlos Moreno is credited with coining the term in 2016, but elements of the philosophy have been around since the 1960s. It has been adopted around the world, most famously by Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, who made it the cornerstone of her 2020 re-election campaign and has overseen the installation of hundreds of kilometres of new bike lanes and a new metro line, and the conversion of some streets into parks.

“I am convinced we need to transform the city so Parisians can learn, do sports, have healthcare, shop, within 15 minutes of their home.”

Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris

“In Paris we all feel we have no time; we are always rushing to one place or another, always trying to gain time,” Hidalgo says. “That is why I am convinced we need to transform the city so Parisians can learn, do sports, have healthcare, shop, within 15 minutes of their home.”

Rory Hyde, associate professor of architecture at the University of Melbourne, says the concept of 15-minute cities is “just the best idea”.

“It’s a principle that requires planners to spread infrastructure around and stop building mono neighbourhoods like sprawling residential compounds without schools, parks or healthcare.”

In Victoria, the 15-minute city philosophy was adopted in the Plan Melbourne Blueprint championed by former premier Dennis Napthine and former planning minister Matthew Guy in 2014, albeit with a 20-minute metric. The blueprint states that 20-minute neighbourhoods “tend to be safer and more inclusive communities and to have vibrant local economies” and “help improve health and wellbeing, reduce travel costs and traffic congestion, and reduce vehicle emissions”.

Deputy lord mayor and chair of planning at the City of Melbourne, Nicholas Reece, says the idea of 15- or 20-minute cities is “very popular” among urban planners in Australia. “There is nothing to fear and a lot to love about the 15-minute city,” he says. “It promotes healthy and sustainable living and improves the quality of life and connection to local community for city dwellers.”

“There is nothing to fear and a lot to love about the 15-minute city.”

Nicholas Reece, City of Melbourne

In NSW, the Future Transport Strategy is planning both 30-minute transport hubs around six regions, including Parramatta, Chatswood, Wollongong and Coffs Harbour, that provide commuters with hubs of “one-stop shops” (supermarkets, post offices and so on) and 15-minute neighbourhoods which prioritise walking, cycling and micromobility (getting about on electric scooters and bikes).

“Our vision for 15-minute neighbourhoods will also improve health and wellbeing outcomes and ensure local communities thrive,” the NSW Minister for Cities and Active Transport, Rob Stokes, has said. (Active transport includes walking and cycling.)

Experts cite Brisbane’s West End and the inner Melbourne suburb of Carlton as examples of areas that would qualify as 15-minute cities.

What’s the conspiracy theory then?

Conspiracy theorists are concerned that 15-minute cities are really designed to restrict people’s movements, so they can be better surveilled by the government. Some claim 15-minute cities represent the first step to open-air jails where residents will not be allowed to leave their prescribed area.

As one British TikToker, blaming Britain’s Conservative government, wrongly warned: “You’re going to have to apply for a f—ing permit, a permit right, to leave your zone.”

Concerns about 15-minute cities have reached the British parliament where, in February, Nick Fletcher – a Conservative MP – called for a “debate on the international socialist concept of so-called 15-minute cities and 20-minute neighbourhoods”.

Fletcher warned that low-emission zones in Britain, where traffic is limited in some neighbourhoods, were causing “untold economic damage”. He did not elaborate on what this damage was. “The second step after these zones will take away personal freedoms as well,” he said. “That cannot be right.”

My Place Australia network, which holds local meetups around the country and has 2700 Facebook members, has espoused the conspiracy theories around 15-minute cities at “meet ‘n’ greets” advertised from Byron Bay in NSW to Ocean Grove on Victoria’s Surf Coast this week.

“It is Crunch time 2023, really time we go after our councils as they are the ones bringing in the 5G, the Smart Cities, etc.”

The Frankston My Place website states that the goal of the network is to “implement a project that allows us to step away from the current systems that are not serving our best interests”. Minutes from the most recent meeting include discussions of homeschooling, gardening, health and a “community action group” that targets local councils. “It is Crunch [sic] time 2023, really time we go after our councils as they are the ones bringing in the 5G, the Smart Cities, etc,” the minutes state.

Some My Place members have started going to council meetings to voice their views. The mayor of Melbourne’s Yarra Ranges, Jim Child, closed a meeting to the public this week after “a number of outbursts” from attendees, at least some of whom were believed to be from the local My Place group, during talk of 20-minute neighbourhoods. “Police were called to assist with the crowd of 100-plus agitators, who didn’t follow the rules we set down for council meetings,” Child said. The group has told the council they will attend meetings until council elections next year.

How has the conspiracy theory caught on?

Jonn Elledge, author of Conspiracy: A History of B*llocks Theories, and How Not to Fall for Them, says that in a sane world the theory behind 15-minute cities would not be even remotely controversial.

“The theory has caught hold because people have had direct recent experience of ‘faceless’ government officials locking them in their homes or neighbourhoods during the pandemic,” he says. “When someone says that 15-minute cities aren’t just a benign theory about how lovely it would be if you had everything you needed in walking distance, they’re the next stage of a sinister plot by the new world order to lock you in your homes … there are some people who are primed to believe it.”

Local councils are increasingly fielding correspondence from people who claim to be “frightened” by 15-minute cities.

Elledge says part of the issue is that urbanism is a global movement that groups such as the World Economic Forum engage with and which, for example, hold international conferences. “That’s obviously prime conspiracist territory, as it fits into the whole Illuminati/New World Order/sinister international conspiracy view of things,” he says.

Urban planners have been left baffled by opposition to 15-minute cities, with Moreno copping racist abuse online, while in Australia local councils such as the City of Melbourne are increasingly fielding correspondence from people who claim to be “frightened” by 15-minute cities.

“Wild conspiracy theories that the 15-minute city will require people to obtain a pass to leave their zone or stop them leaving their local area are ludicrous,” Reece says. “In fact, the 15-minute city will give people more freedom and opportunity to enjoy the best things in life close to their home.”

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