Trump Campaign Reportedly Commissioned Study Showing No Widespread Election Fraud—But Continued To Push Claims Anyway
Topline
A report commissioned by former President Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign found there was no proof of widespread election fraud that could have affected the results, the Washington Post reports, suggesting the Trump campaign knew the fraud claims they were pushing were false and potentially aiding Justice Department investigators in their ongoing probe against Trump.
Key Facts
The Berkeley Research Group conducted a “Project 2020” report commissioned by the Trump campaign that found “there was no reason to believe the final vote totals in five key states were fraudulent” and undercut or disproved the Trump campaign’s fraud allegations, the Post reports based on a copy of the report.
The Trump campaign’s claims there were thousands of cases of dead people voting or people voting twice to change the election results were disproved, with the report finding there were less than 25 instances of dead voters in Georgia or up to 20 in Nevada.
It also ruled out any widespread fraud through mail-in ballots as the Trump campaign alleged, performing tests based on conspiracy theories including so-called “ballot harvesting” in nursing homes, fake voters casting ballots and “bursts” of ballot application submissions that could have suggested widespread fraud.
The report was never made public and the Trump campaign buried its results, with the Post reporting the findings were “a source of frustration” for Trump advisers and a meeting with the Berkeley team and Trump’s team—which Trump was present at—in December 2020 “grew tense.”
Trump continued to push fraud claims that were disproven by the report, with the Post noting his call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R)—in which he suggested “close to 5,000 [dead]
people” voted, a claim the report directly refuted—took place one day after the report came out in January 2021.
DOJ investigators probing the January 6 riot and Trump’s efforts to overturn the election have obtained a copy of the report, according to the Post, with a person who’s been subpoenaed in the investigation telling the Post that investigators are asking for “all evidence that would disprove, or substantiate, fraud claims” and are focused on what Trump and his allies were told about election fraud in the days leading up to January 6.
What To Watch For
It’s still unclear how far along the DOJ is in its investigation of January 6 and Trump’s post-election efforts, or when charges could be brought, if any are. The House January 6 Committee referred several potential criminal charges against Trump to the DOJ, including obstructing an official proceeding and conspiracy to defraud, though the agency can ultimately bring any charges they want or decide against bringing any. Evidence that the Trump campaign commissioned data showing there was no widespread election fraud could be useful to investigators as further proof that Trump knew the fraud claims he was making were false but pushed them anyway, including by trying to stop Congress from certifying the vote count on January 6.
Surprising Fact
The Trump campaign seemingly took pains to conceal it commissioned the report from Berkeley, according to the Post, as the report was formally commissioned by a Trump-associated law firm and conducted by a subsidiary of Berkeley, East Bay Advisory. The “privileged and confidential” report states its client was the Trump campaign, however, the Post reports.
Key Background
Trump and his campaign repeatedly claimed there was widespread fraud in the 2020 election as a justification to overturn the results, an effort that overwhelmingly failed as courts threw out dozens of cases challenging the results and efforts to pressure state officials into altering the results failed. The Berkeley report is in line with a slew of other audits and analyses that have come out after the election showing there was no widespread fraud and affirming President Joe Biden’s win. It also adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting Trump knew the fraud claims he was making were false, as the House January 6 Committee’s investigation found he was also repeatedly told by aides and family members there was no evidence to back up his allegations.
Tangent
A new CNN/SSRS poll this month found that whether or not there’s evidence proving election fraud isn’t stopping many Republicans from claiming the election was stolen anyway. The poll found 63% of Republicans believe Biden did not legitimately win the election, but of those, only 52% believe there’s “solid evidence” proving it while 48% are going on “suspicion only.” The share of Republicans who believe there’s evidence has plunged in the two years since the election, but the share who think Trump rightfully won hasn’t gone down as much, suggesting many Republicans are realizing there isn’t evidence of election fraud but continue to believe it nonetheless.
Further Reading
Trump-commissioned report undercut his claims of dead and double voters (Washington Post)
