Audience Research Indicates Conspiracy Theories Find Traction Among Georgian Population

The USAID Information Integrity program in collaboration with CRRC published today the results of the Audience Research conducted in Georgia and commissioned by Zinc Network. CRRC conducted 2.757 face-to-face interviews in three languages: Georgian, Armenian and Azerbaijani, in the period from January 11 to February 8, 2023 all over Georgia, excluding the occupied territories, with average margin of error being+-2.4%. Between March 10-14 CRRC also conducted an additional smaller scale survey with 1,048 with telephone interviews and margin of error +-2.6%. The results of the research are presented in comparison with the previous one, conducted in November, 2021.

EU and NATO integration

According to the polls, March demonstrations boosted the support of the population for the EU integration, with younger population and Tbilisi residents showing a higher support. The main motivators behind the support of Georgia’s EU membership are improvement of economic conditions (55%), improvement of quality of life (33%) and better job opportunities (30%).

Among those who oppose the EU membership the largest segment does so mainly for fear of losing traditions.

Citizens think that among main factors preventing Georgia from getting EU candidate status are: Russia (20%), weak economy (17%), political polarization (15%) and democratic backsliding (13%).

43% of the population say Georgian Dream is not doing enough to fulfill EU requirements, as opposed to 25% who think GD does everything in their power.

Asked which EU recommendations are the most important to implement to achieve the EU candidacy, ending political polarization (26%), ensuring fair elections (14%), ensuring independent judiciary (8%), and deoligarchization (5%) were the top four.

According to the research, NATO integration saw a decline in recent year. The demographic break-down in this category is similar to that of EU integration case. Those in favor on NATO membership cite enhanced security as the main benefit (78%). It is noteworthy, that 26% of respondents opted for military neutrality, out of which 41% fear that NATO membership will cause conflict with Russia.

Relations with Russia

While more people think, compared with the previous research, that the West is the best partner for Georgia, there is a decline in perception of both the West and Russia, as partners, with more people now then before unsure how to answer.

Similar trend is observed when asked whether Georgian traditions will be better preserved with Russia (15%) or the West (41%).

However, when it comes to national security, majority consider the West to be more trustworthy ally (59%), than Russia (13%), with 16% saying – neither are.

37% of people think strong criticism of Russia is important to keep the issue of Russian occupation of Georgia high on the international agenda, 35% saying it creates a security risk for the country.

Conspiracy and Propagandistic Narratives

31% believe that the war in Ukraine was provoked by the West, with 25% disagreeing. While 47% believe nothing could have stopped Putin from the invasion of Ukraine, 26% think Ukraine could have avoided the war by making concessions to Russia.

The research says conspiracy theories about attempts to drag Georgia into the war get traction in the society. Asked if the West is trying to drag Georgia into the war 29% said they agreed with such statement (vs 47% who don’t); whether Ukrainian officials try to drag Georgia into the war (40% – agree vs 38% disagree), whether the opposition is trying to do the same (34% vs 42%).

Significantly fewer people as compared with a previous research, think that Georgian culture, values and religion were oppressed in the USSR. However, fewer people also believe Georgians should be proud of Stalin with 37% thinking so now as opposed to 45% in 2021.

Russia’s war in Ukraine and its implications for Georgia

Thinking about the war in Ukraine, 39% of Georgians are concerned by military threat coming from Russia, 10% are concerned about inflation, and 8% about Russians’ ‘massive migration to Georgia. Interestingly, only 4 out of 10 people think that sanctions against Russia will work or will work long-term, according to the research. 58% think Georgian government has done enough to support Ukraine, while only 37% think this is true about NATO and 39% about EU. 39% think Ukraine will win the war, 14% say Russia will win, 17% believe that war will grow into the protracted frozen conflict.

Other domestic matters

31% think Georgia is mainly moving in the right direction, while 29% say it does not, with 31% saying they see no change. Share of people who think Georgia is going in the wrong direction has increases since March.

As seen below, Georgians have mainly negative emotions when it comes to thinking about the situation in the country.

34% blame ruling Georgian Dream more than the opposition for the political polarization, while 16% say opposition is more responsible, and 28% say GD and opposition are equally responsible, with 5% agreeing with neither statement.

The majority of the population (58%) blame the socio-economic hardships on the Georgian Dream, 4% on United National Movement, and 22% on both, with 5% allocating responsibility to neither.

Information consumption habits

According to the research, social media is catching up with TV as the most frequently consumer media platform.

Among other findings are that the population has low trust in TV, with the lowest in the pro-Russian TV channels, which are also least watched.

According the research the Facebook is the most popular social media platform (70%) in Georgia, but others are growing in popularity as well.

4 out of 10 people say they can identify false information, however 63% said they would not report false information, or label is at fake, or contact the author. As for the most trusted sources of opinion family and Patriarch.

This post is also available in: ქართული (Georgian)