Opinion What happened in Russia — and what happens next? Our columnists weigh in.
A remarkable series of events in Russia kept the world on edge this weekend. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, took over a regional capital on Saturday and sent a column of soldiers to Moscow in what looked like a coup in the making. Then, just as suddenly as it began, Prigozhin called it all off on Saturday night, sending his forces back to their barracks. He had seemingly struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin — a deal that entailed broad amnesty for himself and his fellow mutineers, and that will supposedly see his organization integrated into the Russian army.
What does it all mean? And what’s next for Russia — and by extension, Ukraine? We asked our columnists to weigh in.
David Von Drehle: Even failed coups have consequences
They say a bird that walks and quacks like a duck is probably a duck. Events in Russia that looked like a military coup, and were initially interpreted as a coup by Putin, were probably an attempted coup — until the coup fell apart.
Which coups typically do. In an exhaustive study of coup attempts from 1950 to 2000, scholar Naunihal Singh identified the central challenge for all coup planners. Detailed planning for the attempted overthrow of an authoritarian government is too dangerous. Dictators — such as Putin — organize their entire governments around ferreting out such plans and crushing them. A coup attempt must begin, therefore, with a bold move by a small group, with hopes others will join in. There is no plan, Singh wrote, only hopes and beliefs. “Each individual’s choices are based on his or her beliefs about the likely actions of others.”
As Prigozhin motored up the highway toward Moscow on Saturday, he surely had a sinking feeling. The uprising he apparently hoped to inspire inside the Russian Ministry of Defense was neither up nor rising. Like coup planners in Turkey in 2016 and Venezuela in 2020, Prigozhin issued an invitation to a spontaneous overthrow of the government, but no one showed up.
The wild card in this case was the government’s reaction. Putin evidently had no more confidence than Prigozhin as to the outcome of the clash. Rather than test the loyalty and strength of government forces to crush the uprising, the Russian leader grabbed the first exit he was offered — a sign of weakness that might invite another attempt.
There’s good news and bad news in this. The good news is that Russia’s reckless leaders are not suicidal, which is a welcome quality in a nuclear power. The bad news: A weakened Russia has weakened leaders and is spinning out of control. Putin has taken his country into a disaster, and there is no one in sight to save it.
