The web of conspiracy theories and the US election

Conspiracy theories have captivated society for centuries, spinning intriguing narratives that challenge our sense of truth—and the recent US elections are no exception

In every era, conspiracy theories have captivated the public imagination, creating a whirlwind of suspicions, accusations, and intrigue. Today, with the American presidential election in the rearview mirror, the air is thick with conspiracy theories, some rooted in historical patterns and others fueled by recent global events.

From ancient prophesies to modern speculations, these narratives show how deeply conspiratorial thinking is woven into society, even influencing one of the most powerful democracies in the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a wave of theories dominated headlines, each offering a different perspective on the virus’s origin and spread. For example, when former U.S. President Donald Trump labelled COVID-19 the “Wuhan virus,” he fanned the flames of speculation that the virus was the result of Chinese bioengineering. Simultaneously, however, a counter-narrative gained traction, suggesting that the virus was an American creation, designed and disseminated as part of an alleged biological warfare program.

Even within the conspiracy community, viewpoints diverged: was COVID-19 a lab-born pathogen or a consequence of environmental manipulation? A particularly unique theory even claimed the virus spread through the electromagnetic signals of 5G towers, resulting in people burning down cell towers in the United Kingdom. The COVID-19 narrative was far from alone in raising eyebrows. Conspiracy theorists link current fears to past events—from the HIV/AIDS epidemic to natural disasters. Some hold that HIV was an engineered product of the U.S. military’s biological weapons division, first tested on prisoners in the 1970s before it spread outside government control.

Others go back further in history, believing that HIV stemmed from scientific mutations, a theory allegedly supported by Russian virologists who argue that HIV was a modified form of the VISNA virus, created in a laboratory setting. Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai also claimed in 2004 that AIDS was no accident, attributing its origin to American laboratories.

Natural disasters, too, have not escaped the lens of conspiratorial imagination. In the wake of the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, rumours spread that U.S. military tests were to blame. The claim was that sophisticated nuclear weapons testing off the coast of Indonesia could manipulate the weather and disrupt seismic activity. Alongside such theories, another narrative has taken shape, labelled the “Thucydides Trap”—a concept rooted in the belief that rising powers, such as China, often seek to destabilize dominant powers, exemplified by the release of COVID-19 as an alleged bio-weapon against the United States. Conversely, some assert that COVID-19 was a means for the U.S. to undermine China, spurring a dramatic escalation of mutual suspicion. Even the 9/11 attacks are rich ground for conspiracy theories. There are over four million articles online dissecting and speculating on every aspect of the attack, including claims of prior U.S. knowledge and deliberate inaction. Such theories propose that the tragedy served as a pretext for increased American military involvement in the Middle East, bolstering the economic interests of defence industries.

In such an environment, it is hardly surprising that suspicion surrounds recent American presidential elections. Election season in the United States has always been a prime opportunity for conspiracy theories, with the latest election being no exception. In this context, Nostradamus, the French astrologer and reputed seer of the 16th century reappears in the collective imagination. Nostradamus is often cited as having “predicted” world events, from the rise of Hitler to the terror of 9/11. As American political dynamics shift, believers interpret Nostradamus’ cryptic prophecies to suit contemporary issues, citing his supposed foresight about Trump’s ascension and even a second term. Such theories proliferate because they tap into pre-existing beliefs, adding layers of mystery to the already intricate political landscape. One particularly respected figure in the American election-prediction community is historian Allan Lichtman. Dubbed the “Election Nostradamus,” Lichtman has accurately forecasted the outcomes of multiple presidential elections over the past few decades.

Although Lichtman’s predictions are based on a well-formulated system, his track record and the nickname he’s acquired seem to lend credence to the idea that prophecy and foresight have a place even in the most rational domains. Lichtman’s projections of a Democratic victory fueled hope among Biden and Harris supporters, while some conspiracy theorists proposed that the “powers that be” were covertly steering the election outcome to align with Lichtman’s track record. In the age of social media and instantaneous communication, conspiracy theories spread rapidly.

The adage, “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes,” aptly describes how quickly misinformation can take hold. The rise of the internet has only amplified this effect, granting conspiracy theories a global platform.

Notably, the Flat Earth Society has found new life online, continuing to challenge the scientifically accepted fact that the Earth is round. The society’s followers persist in their belief, interpreting satellite imagery and NASA’s findings as government propaganda.

Similarly, speculation surrounds the historic 1969 moon landing. Despite NASA’s documentation and evidence, sceptics argue that the moon landing was an elaborate hoax staged to one-up the Soviet Union in the Cold War space race. Believers insist that the televised moonwalks were filmed on Earth, attributing the iconic image of Neil Armstrong to American propaganda efforts.

The moon landing controversy may be one of the most persistent conspiracy theories, as it continues to captivate audiences more than 50 years later.

As much as conspiracy theories focus on the United States, they are not exclusive to any single nation. Still, America’s global influence and extensive media presence make it especially susceptible to scrutiny. Government mistrust underpins many of these theories, exemplified by the Roman historian Tacitus, who posited that the actions of untrustworthy rulers breed public suspicion.

According to Tacitus, regimes that lose the faith of their citizens tend to fuel the fires of conspiracy, using public confusion as a tool to maintain control. In the current political climate, where truth is elusive and media narratives frequently conflict, conspiracy theories are likely to thrive. They emerge not only from a need to question authority but also from an inherent fascination with the unknown.

For every piece of verified information, there is a counter-theory that rejects it, and conspiracy theories transform historical and current events into captivating narratives for believers and sceptics alike.

As American democracy continues to face these claims, it’s clear that conspiracy theories are not going away any time soon. Rather, they will evolve, adapting to each new event and generation with the same intensity that has fueled them for centuries.

(The writer is an associate professor; views are personal)