Fact Check: Did 15 Million Democrats Not Show Up in This Election?
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential race was called quickly and had a decisive result after weeks of speculation that the contest would come down to a knife edge.
As of Thursday, nearly all contests had been called. While Nevada and Arizona are still checking ballots, Trump was leading in both states as of Thursday morning.
The straightforward declaration of this year’s results appeared to attract some questions about votes, including, according to a series of viral social media posts, an alleged 15 million absence of Democratic voters compared to results from the 2020 race.
The Claim
A post on X, formerly Twitter, by @BBlanco718 on November 6, 2024, said: “15 million less Democratic voters this time around. 15 million. So one has to ask what happened? Did they not show up? Did not mail in ballots? How did 15m disappear?”
Another post by conservative commentator @DC_Draino on November 7, 2024, said: “The question we must never stop asking: Where are Biden’s 15 million extra votes?
“Even Democrats are asking about it and some are admitting even they now believe 2020 was rigged.”
The Facts
The claim about missing votes appears to originate from the X account of the hacking group Anonymous, which posted the 15 million claim on Wednesday morning. It also said 3 million “MAGA” votes were missing compared to the last presidential race.
However, with the final turnout yet to be tabulated, the “15 million” missing Democrats are almost certainly a mixture of votes still being counted, voters switching candidates, or voters not voting at all.
As of 10:30 a.m. ET Thursday, the Associated Press reports that Donald Trump has secured 295 electoral college votes from 72,669,531 ballots, while Kamala Harris received 226 from 68,012,797 ballots. That is 1.5 million fewer ballots for Republicans and 13.2 million fewer for Democrats than the total count in the 2020 election.
Many other states are still counting ballots, and Arizona and Nevada’s final electoral college votes have yet to be called. In California, a Democratic stronghold, only 55 percent of ballots have been counted as of Thursday. In Oregon and Washington, two other Democratic strongholds, 77 percent and 79 percent of ballots, respectively, have been tallied.
An analysis by The Washington Post of data from the Associated Press and the University of Florida Election Lab shows an expected national turnout of 65 percent of the population. If accurate, it will be the second-highest turnout in the past century, which means the gap between the two elections will narrow significantly in the coming days.
The full picture of the Democratic turnout is yet to be painted, although some polling data indicates changes. As reported by Reuters, Edison Research exit polling showed that self-identified independent voters accounted for a larger share of the election than Democrats, tied with Republicans.
The independent share increased by 8 percentage points from 2020, and while most independents favored Harris, Trump increased his performance with the voting bloc by four percentage points.
The Ruling
False.
The disparity between the 2020 and 2024 results appears to be a mixture of ballots still being counted, certain voter blocs switching, contests yet to be called and slightly lower (yet still very high) national turnout. The quoted number of 15 million “missing” Democratic votes has already altered, with counts in strongholds such as California, Oregon and Washington ongoing as of Thursday.
FACT CHECK BY Newsweek’s Fact Check team
