Did Covid-19 originate in a Wuhan lab? Now CIA says yes but does it matter?

The origins of Covid-19 have remained one of the most debated topics of the 21st century.

Now, in a fresh assessment released last week, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), believes that the virus responsible for the coronavirus pandemic was “more likely” leaked from a Chinese lab in Wuhan than transmitted by animals.

The decision to release this new report marks one of the first made by Trump-appointed new CIA director John Ratcliffe, who took over the spy agency last week.

So, why is the lab-leak theory resurfacing with renewed attention? What does the CIA’s latest assessment reveal? And how has China responded to these claims? Here’s a closer look.

But first, a brief look at the swirling theories

One of the key suspicions is that the coronavirus may have accidentally, or perhaps intentionally, escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the virus was first detected.

Proponents of this
’lab-leak’ theory point to the presence of a major biological research facility in the city. The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) has been studying coronaviruses in bats for over a decade.

Those who entertain the theory argue that the virus could have leaked from the lab and spread to the nearby Huanan wet market, where the first cluster of infections emerged.

This controversial idea gained traction early in the pandemic, notably championed by President Donald Trump during his first term. Some even speculated that the virus might have been engineered as a biological weapon, although these claims remained unsubstantiated.

In contrast, the ’natural origin’ theory argues the virus spreads naturally from animals, without the involvement of any scientists or laboratories. Supporters of the hypothesis say Covid-19 emerged in bats and then jumped to humans, most likely through another animal, or “intermediary host”.

The lab leak theory faced significant scepticism and was dismissed by many in politics and the media as a conspiracy theory at the time. Many scientists even pointed out there is no evidence to back it up, but the idea has persisted within intelligence agencies, continuing to fuel debates over the pandemic’s origins.

In 2023, FBI Director
Christopher Wray told Fox News it was his bureau’s assessment that “the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident”.

Why is the CIA backing the ’lab leak’ theory?

The CIA has thrown its weight behind the lab leak theory as the most plausible origin of Covid-19 in its latest assessment.

According to a spokesperson, a “research-related origin” of the virus “is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting,” as reported by the BBC. The agency also stated that it will continue to evaluate any credible new intelligence that emerges.

In an interview with Breitbart News, CIA Director John Ratcliffe emphasised his intention to shift the agency’s stance on the virus’s origins.

“One of the things that I’ve talked about a lot is addressing the threat from China on a number of fronts, and that goes back to why a million Americans died and why the Central Intelligence Agency has been sitting on the sidelines for five years in not making an assessment about the origins of Covid,” he said. “That’s a day-one thing for me.”

The agency’s findings, however, are not based on new intelligence. Instead, the assessment relies on a reevaluation of the same evidence it has been analysing for months. This includes a closer examination of the conditions in Wuhan’s high-security laboratories before the outbreak, sources familiar with the agency’s work said.

However, the intelligence agency noted that it holds “low confidence” in its conclusion, meaning the intelligence supporting it is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory.

Also read:
‘Made in Wuhan, shipped by Beijing’: A story of how Communist Party of China gave world Covid-19 pandemic

‘Biden did not want to face China head-on’

The lab-leak theory has faced consistent scepticism due to the absence of direct evidence and its potential to exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

Former CIA Director John Ratcliffe argued in a 2023 essay for Fox News that the agency had previously refrained from endorsing the lab-leak theory to avoid diplomatic fallout for the Biden administration.

He wrote, “The real problem is, the only assessment the agency could make — which is that a virus that killed over a million Americans originated in a CCP-controlled lab whose research included work for the Chinese military — has enormous geopolitical implications that the Biden administration does not want to face head-on.”

In the final weeks of the Biden administration, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan ordered a classified review into the pandemic’s origins, according to The New York Times. As part of this review, then-CIA Director William J Burns urged analysts to take a definitive position on the origins of COVID-19, though he remained neutral on which theory they should support.

Under Ratcliffe, the CIA decided to declassify and release the analysis favouring the lab-leak theory. He said in a Fox News report, that the release of the assessment was meant to “restore Americans’ trust in our own institutions”.

“The purpose of the CIA is to protect Americans – keep us safe from foreign threats and foreign adversaries,” Ratcliffe said. “But we also need to be truthful with Americans.”

Ratcliffe, who served as Director of National Intelligence during Donald Trump’s presidency, has long maintained that COVID-19 most likely originated from a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

The theory has also gained support from political figures like Republican Senator Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, The Guardian reported.

Speaking on Saturday, Cotton said he was “pleased the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation.” He further stated, “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”

What is China saying?

Chinese authorities have consistently dismissed speculation about Covid-19’s origins, labelling it unhelpful and politically motivated.

On Saturday, a spokesperson for China’s US embassy criticised the CIA’s latest report, questioning its credibility.

“We firmly oppose the politicisation and stigmatisation of the source of the virus, and once again call on everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories,” embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu stated in an email to the AP.

The origins of Covid-19 remain a mystery, with debates between natural transmission and the lab-leak theory still ongoing. As the CIA and other agencies weigh in, the quest for a definitive answer continues to spark global interest and controversy.

With input from agencies