The Evidence-Free Claim that the ‘Covid’ Vaccines Saved 20 Million Lives is Easily Debunked

January 28, 2025 antivax

If you asked a man on the Clapham omnibus how many lives the vaccines ‘saved’, I’d be surprised if he has any idea at all. If, by chance he does have an inkling he’ll probably quote the 20 million claim repeated ad nauseum in the media over the past few years.

If you went on to ask him how many people died across the globe in any one year, then I very much doubt he would have any idea at all. Until I looked into this I had no clue either, so why should our bus passenger know? This is how the claim that 20 million lives were saved by the vaccines gets credence: no one has any context in which to frame the number.

This article puts some context around the claim, showing you where it comes from and why it’s wrong.

Across the world about 60 million people die each year. A much quoted paper, authored by a bunch of Imperial College academics and published in the Lancet in September 2022, claimed that the vaccines saved 19.8 million lives during the 12 month period starting December 8th 2020, the date the first Covid vaccine was injected into the arm of a member of the public.

Rarely has this figure ever been challenged. We see it quoted on the BBC, at the Hallett Inquiry, in Parliament, by broadcasters and leaders across the world. Yet it’s complete nonsense.

Taken from Our World in Data, Figure 1 shows global deaths per year from 2015 to 2023. In the absence of Covid and the disastrous lockdowns, in 2021 there would have been about 60 million deaths. However, because of Covid and lockdowns there were almost 70 million deaths. 10 million extra deaths. I have my doubts about the numbers ascribed to Covid but let’s leave that to one side for now; it’s the ‘saved’ lives rather than the lost lives we’re looking at.

Imperial’s claim is that, in the absence of vaccines, deaths would have been 19.8 million higher, taking the total to about 90 million deaths.