Weather expert explains why ‘chemtrail’ conspiracies are too far-fetched for science

I recently wrote a column about the “chemtrail” conspiracy theory, and to say it caused quite a stir would be a serious understatement.

My motivation for writing the piece came because there is a bill being looked at by the Florida legislature to address concerns of people who think the skies are being seeded by commercial airplanes with poisonous, weather-manipulating substances. Some of those raising concerns claim there are vague amorphous operatives in the federal government leading this charge.

My initial column focused on 20 questions I’d like answered before I can buy into this conspiracy.

Many people didn’t take kindly to what I wrote, but none provided concrete evidence to prove something this wide spread and nefarious was going on in the skies.

I decided I’d try to find answers, and I did so by asking someone credible in the field of weather sciences.

Answers from climate expert

Michael Splitt is a professor in the College of Aeronautics at Florida Institute of Technology, with a Master’s in meteorology.

His focuses have included instrumentation quality control for an array of sensors including atmospheric soundings systems, surface radiometers, surface flux systems and water vapor sensors. He also provided weather forecast guidance for intensive observation periods, which included aircraft operations. 

His scientific, fact-based knowledge is rooted in field experience, not web articles or YouTube videos, and he gave me a much better understanding of the science behind contrails, and why the conspiracy of “chemtrails” just doesn’t, um, fly.

Can the climate be altered by humans?

The idea of trying to manipulate weather is called “climate engineering.” There is a form of this called solar geoengineering.

Conspiracy theorists say “chemtrails” are being used on a large scale to manage radiation to combat global warming.

Splitt conceded experiments have been done in this field, but not in the way that is being proposed by conspiracy theorists.

“Climate engineering, it’s more than theoretical. People have been doing this for a long time.

“We’ve been doing things like this for decades in terms of, for example, fog management products. People have used this kind of methodology of adding things to the air to help get rid of fog, like the ice fog problem in Salt Lake City. So, there are places where people try to manage a local cloud layer.”

However, it’s not done to a scale that would impact the country or globe.

That’s where conspiracy theorists take climate engineering a step too far.

There are those who say commercial airliners are spraying other substances like aluminum and barium (and other metallic) nano particles to reflect the sun’s heat to reduce global warming.

Splitt said if this were real, it might have the opposite effect.

“When you have more contrails, it actually ends up warming the planet. The cirrus clouds created by aircraft and their reflective power isn’t as much as let’s say, the warming impact from below, from infrared radiation, so they end up being warmer.”

In fact, Splitt says people should be more worried about what aircraft engines naturally put out as opposed to unknown forces stuffing the skies with chemicals.

“I’d be more concerned about the exhaust that’s coming out near the airports when they’re taking off and landing,” he said. “If you’re going to be really worried about the chemicals in the atmosphere from burning of fuels, I mean, you’d be more interested in low altitude, near the airport.”

Why do some contrails last longer than others?

Of course, there’s still the top argument as to why people believe in “chemtrails:” They can see them. I received multiple emails of people who tell me they’ve been watching the skies and contrails don’t last as long as “chemtrails.”

Splitt explained why on one day, there might not be any contrails present in the sky, while the next day, they line the sky and linger, even when temperatures and humidity feel similar.

“One of the critical parameters, it’s the conditions at 30,000 feet that matter, not down at the surface,” Splitt said. “Down at the surface, we talk about relative humidity, and it’s based on a metric that references liquid water, and we call it the dew point. But when we’re talking about high altitude clouds, we’re looking at ice development. We look at something that’s basically the frost point in the atmosphere and it will run higher than the dew point. And so, we often use the frost point when we’re looking at, for example, conditions that would be conducive to cirrus formation or contrail formation.”

In laymen’s terms, just because it feels one way on the ground doesn’t mean that’s how it is high in the sky. Thus, some days contrails linger while on other days they break apart quickly.

Are ‘chemtrails’ steering, strengthening storms?

Perhaps the most far-fetched idea is that “chemtrails” can be used to strengthen or steer hurricanes or tornadoes.

Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, on Oct. 3, 2024, posted this on X as a major hurricane barreled toward Florida: “Yes they can control the weather. It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.”

She later doubled down on this after fellow Republican, Rep. Carlos Giménez of Florida, wrote in response on X: “Humans cannot create or control hurricanes. Anyone who thinks they can, needs to have their head examined.”

I asked Splitt to weigh in.

“There’s a lot of research ongoing but, we don’t have that capability,” Splitt said. “It’s amazing that people complain about weather forecasts being unpredictable, yet they think we can target something like that. It’s like these two ends of this crazy spectrum, right?

“So, to be able to target something so specific as tornadoes in a certain area, or that we’re doing it to create more tornadoes or fewer tornadoes, or steering hurricanes, good luck with that.

“To say we’ve changed the radiation a little bit and that’s going to suddenly steer something, that’s pretty out there. That’s where they need to produce the evidence.”

It boils down to this…

I know this article likely won’t change anyone’s mind who is deeply entrenched in the “chemtrail” conspiracy theory of commercial airliners cropdusting large-scale clouds of chemicals into the skies.

However, I would prefer our Florida legislature do better things with its time.

We have a homeowners insurance crisis in Florida. Lake Okeechobee and the Indian River Lagoon are sick and in need of help. Our infrastructure is aging and struggling to keep up with the 1,000 new people moving to Florida each day.

Let’s tackle real issues rather than chasing clouds.

It’s hard for me to believe a worldwide coordination has been under way for decades to scatter a dangerous substance through the atmosphere in hopes of mitigating climate change.

If there’s a whistle blower out there, whether it be a pilot, a chemical manufacturer, a plane manufacturer, or anyone with a concrete piece of evidence that this exists, I’d love to have it.

I’ll close with a question sent in by a supportive reader named Peter who thought this would have been a great 21st question for my initial column: “If the government or some nefarious, clandestine group is actually doing this, aren’t they pretty much doing it to THEMSELVES as well? I mean, do they breathe different air than everyone else in the US / world?”

Good question, Peter. Maybe we just need to find the one area of the U.S. that never has planes cross over it. Maybe that’s where the perpetrators can be found.

Contact Walters at twalters@gannett.com