A new stage of uncertainty for the Ukraine war
At the beginning of the war, the Western media were unified in its support of Ukraine as an underdog fighting for its freedom, land, and sovereignty as a potential European democracy with access to the E.U. and ultimately NATO.
After over three years of military fighting, there is no clear winner in sight despite the slight superiority of Ukraine’s drone warfare and Russia’s failing continuous meat grinder assaults. Modern trench warfare is no longer strategic assaults with heavy military equipment like tanks, which relatively cheap drones can easily destroy. The Russians’ gross incompetence with inferior military drones and equipment is barely keeping up, but they are trying as best as they can. Whether the the Russian economy crash and the leadership replace Putin is a big unknown, which can still radically alter the course of the war.
Misinformation has recently flooded the airways, making it hard to determine which side is telling the truth and which side, if not both, is lying to the public in a ruthless way. About half of Trump-supporters now may feel that Zelensky was responsible for the war and ought to pay back the USA for its military assistance. Trump is calling Russian ceasefire violations mistakes. Whether his wheeler-and-dealer businessman approach instead of standard diplomacy will work with a ruthless tyrant like Putin is up in the air. I hope Trump will change his mind and at least go back to selling defensive military hardware to Ukraine.
Russia’s major weakness is its oil refineries, which generate most of the income for the war machine and economy. The more they are put out of commission, the faster the Russian regime may change. Yet crude oil exports to India haven’t been stopped yet.
Russia is getting North Korean troops fighting on its side, and North Korea is supplying Russia with artillery shells. Even though China denies it, China is also providing technological support for Russia, especially drone parts. Include Iran’s Shahed drones, missiles, and rockets, and you have a three-pronged Axis of Evil trying to help Putin.
We have entered a great period of uncertainty in the Ukraine war. How it will all stabilize is anyone’s guess. If Trump gets out of the picture entirely, then it is really questionable whether Europe will be able to supply Ukraine with all that it needs for self-defense and beyond.
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