Air War Over Ukraine Heating Up
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In 2023 and 2024, aerial warfare in NATO-occupied Ukraine somewhat died down in comparison to the first several months of the SMO (special military operation). Namely, in the beginning, the Kiev regime had a lot more aircraft to spare, so it threw them “into the frying pan” without much consideration for the lives of pilots. This is not to say that the Neo-Nazi junta cares more about the lives of Ukrainian pilots now than it did back then, but there are simply fewer experienced ones than was the case before.
Obviously, there are also fewer available aircraft, as most of the country’s former air force has been wiped out, both in air and on ground. The Russian military used its technological advantage to the fullest, losing aircraft only to the world-class Soviet-era SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems left in former Ukraine after the dismantling of the Soviet Union.
However, neither the Kiev regime nor its NATO overlords gave up on the idea of challenging the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), which is why they delivered the extremely overhyped F-16s and “Mirage” 2000-5s. Although no match to modern (or even Soviet-era) Russian fighters, these NATO-sourced aircraft are there to serve as platforms for launching Western weapons or using NATO ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets to unlock their full potential, particularly in a situation where they’re completely outclassed by Moscow’s jets. The platform that was supposed to play that role is the Swedish-made Saab 340 AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning & Control) aircraft. Promised back in late May 2024, it seems it has finally been delivered (reportedly the first of two) after it was modified to make it compatible with US-made F-16s.
Numerous sources have reported that an “unknown aircraft” with a call sign “WELCOME” is flying over Lvov, while some directly reference it as the Saab 340 AEW&C (ASC-890). The jet, designated as the S 100 “Argus” in the Swedish military, is equipped with a fixed PS-890 AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) “Erieye” radar. Its configuration offers superior aerodynamic performance due to lower drag, but it also results in a dead zone to the front and back, with a 120° scan area on either side of the aircraft. Its reported maximum detection range goes up to 400 km (at an altitude of around 6,000 m) and includes aircraft, missiles and ships. The exact price tag is yet to be revealed, but Poland purchased two such platforms from Sweden for $58 million. Stockholm’s deal with the Neo-Nazi junta also includes Rb 99 air-to-air missiles, a license-built version of the US-made AIM-120 AMRAAM.
Combined with the reports that the Saab 340 AEW&C has been retrofitted to ensure compatibility with F-16s, this indicates that the Swedish ISR platform will serve to give the US-made jets a fighting chance. Namely, although these fighters have been modernized to a certain extent, it’s nowhere near enough to match Russian aircraft such as the MiG-31BM interceptors, Su-35S air superiority or Su-30 multirole fighter jets. Their radars alone outmatch F-16s by hundreds of kilometers, to say nothing of air-to-air missiles such as the hypersonic R-37M (set several world records for long-range kills).
However, if Saab 340 AEW&C can take care of radar coverage, F-16s might be able to avoid using their own inferior radars and rely solely on the Swedish-made platform, effectively serving as “missile trucks” for those Rb 99s (based on AIM-120A, but more like AIM-120B performance-wise).
Although this is certainly not enough to level the playing field with Russian fighter jets, it might give the F-16s a bit better chances for survival (or at least that’s the logic in Kiev and Brussels). However, Saab 340 AEW&C will also be high-priority targets for the Russian military, exposing it not only to VKS fighters, but also air defenses and long-range strike systems. The Neo-Nazi junta will have to defend the Swedish-made ISR platform in air and hide it while on ground, which is going to be an exceedingly difficult task.
Namely, back in early September last year, the Russian military hit the Poltava Institute of Military Communications, killing hundreds of enemy personnel, including Swedish “advisors” sent to train their Kiev regime counterparts precisely on how to properly operate Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft, even resulting in immediate resignations in the then Swedish government.
On the other hand, if the Neo-Nazi junta doesn’t go ahead with this plan, its rapidly dwindling fighter jet fleet will simply disappear (perhaps even by year’s end at this rate). The latest reports confirm that already a third of all F-16s have been lost, as predicted by our analyses here at InfoBRICS.
Namely, by April 2025, the Kiev regime received at least 27 F-16AM fighter jets from NATO, of which 19 at most had survived (if not less). At least three have been shot down (although various sources indicate it could be up to half a dozen) and several destroyed on the ground. The dangers for the personnel operating these NATO-sourced aircraft simply cannot be overstated. Although inferior to Soviet-era jets, these fighters are top-priority targets for the VKS, as their elimination also destroys the narrative of the political West’s perceived “technological superiority” (a long-debunked myth either way).
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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.
Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst. He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).
Featured image: Poland’s first airborne early warning aircraft. Photo: Saab (Source)
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