Conspiracy theories, misinformation, COVID-19, and the 2020 election

One month from the election, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by a sizable margin among registered voters. Fifty percent of Americans who are registered to vote plan to vote for Biden in the fall election, and 40 percent say they will vote for President Trump, with 4 percent backing another candidate and 5 percent planning not to vote this cycle.

Partisan commitments are solid but not fully consolidated at this stage, with 92 percent of Democrats planning to back Biden and 87 percent of Republicans planning to support the president. A relatively small, but perhaps important, percentage of partisan defections are possible and currently favor the former vice president: Six percent of Republicans plan to vote for Biden, compared to 4 percent of Democrats who plan to vote for Trump. A plurality of independents break for Biden over Trump by a 48 percent to 32 percent margin, with 17 percent looking at another candidate or not planning to vote in this election.

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