Lacking widespread evidence of fraud, election deniers seek widespread affirmation

The dogged efforts despite numerous audits, reviews and court filings that found no more fraud in 2020 than is typical in any other election reflect a common tendency to double down on beliefs even when evidence suggests otherwise, said a social psychologist who studies cognitive dissonance.

On Thursday, members from the self-proclaimed “election integrity” group True the Vote will address a hearing before the Assembly elections committee.

Last Thursday, activist Jefferson Davis promised a packed room of supporters that True the Vote would “drop a bomb” this week proving the existence of widespread fraud. That’s despite no evidence coming before legislative committees — or anywhere else — leading to any finding of widespread fraud that would suggest former President Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2020.

A Republican review of the election by conservative former Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman was the latest to fall short of proving widespread fraud. Gableman claimed 100% of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee county nursing homes cast absentee ballots in 2020, insinuating at least some of those votes had to have been cast fraudulently by others. But a closer look by the Wisconsin State Journal found only one nursing home where all 12 registered voters cast ballots; turnout among all the others ranged from 42% to 91%.

Some have conflated policies or decisions on election administration that they opposed or which weren’t explicitly authorized in state law with fraud, even though some of the practices were consistent with past elections, were approved by government bodies in open session or were found to be legal by a court.

Those include grants from the Mark Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life to help cover the cost of conducting an election during a pandemic. While the grants went to about 214 municipalities, including many that went for Trump, the bulk of the money went to the state’s five largest cities, which turned out strongly for Joe Biden. Multiple courts have ruled the grants were legal. The grants were also not denied to any municipalities that requested them.

Deniers also have called for jailing members of the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission for advising local clerks they could fix minor errors on ballot envelopes and use ballot drop boxes, which aren’t addressed in state law. The measures were approved by both Democratic and Republican members of the commission.

Assembly elections committee chair Rep. Janel Brandtjen, R-Menomonee Falls, has long derided the way the 2020 election was conducted, requesting information from Wisconsin counties as a first step toward what she described as a “full, cyber-forensic audit of tabulators and inspection of the physical ballots” from the election. She has also provided a platform for a man convicted of mail and bank fraud to give a presentation featuring false and unprovable claims about the 2020 election.

She did not respond to a request for comment.

A recount, routine post-election audits and court decisions have affirmed that Biden defeated Trump in Wisconsin by almost 21,000 votes. A review by the nonpartisan Legislative Audit Bureau as well as the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty also found no evidence of widespread fraud, and multiple court rulings have found no evidence of irregularities.

Only 24 people out of nearly 3.3 million who cast ballots have been charged with election fraud in Wisconsin, The Associated Press reported last week.

‘Excellent optics’

Thursday’s Assembly election hearing comes after Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, last week noted the election can’t be decertified but nevertheless expressed a belief that there had been “widespread fraud” in 2020.

Vos and his spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In addition to decertifying the election — which is legally impossible — many of those who persist in denying the outcome of the 2020 election are calling on the Legislature to enact stricter voting laws, which are all but certain to be vetoed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, and draw attention to their cause.

In an online chat, some called for supporters to take the day off work and rally to the Capitol on Thursday.

“We want to pack it out and show the liberal media and press that we support election integrity, Justice Gableman, Rep. Brandtjen, Rep. Ramthun and True the Vote,” Davis said in a statement posted on the messaging platform Telegram. “Standing room only and packing the hallway would be excellent optics.”

In May, a different group says it plans to bring a “Canadian Trucker Style” convoy to the Capitol, “Where the start of the end of our enslavement will begin!!!” according to the group’s website.

The group is calling on Wisconsin to ban voting machines, prohibit outside grants for election administration and decertify the 2020 election, among other things. It’s also calling for the “arrest, prosecution, and severe punishment for those who have and would violate these and existing voting laws.”

The group — calling itself Grandma and Grandpa — is calling on the Legislature to pass the measures in a special session and vowed to camp out at the Capitol until its demands are met.

Evers has said he won’t sign legislation that would make it harder to vote.

Speaking at a WisPolitics luncheon last week, Evers, who is up for reelection in November, said repeated claims of fraud in the 2020 election by top Republicans, including Vos, have only encouraged the call for decertification — something that has also been urged by Gableman, who Vos hired last year to conduct a one-party review of the election at a cost to taxpayers of $676,000.

“I think he’s one of the smartest people I’ve ever met and I think this is one of the dumbest things he’s ever said,” Evers said in reference to Vos’ claim of widespread fraud.

Cognitive dissonance

Many people who persist in claiming there was widespread voter fraud despite all evidence to the contrary may be beyond being swayed by the facts, said Carol Tavris, a social psychologist who studies cognitive dissonance and co-author of the book, “Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).”

“People don’t arrive at most of their beliefs through reasoned reflection or even the best science,” Tavris said. “They rely on the opinions of their ‘tribe,’ and nowadays the most salient tribes in our country are political camps.”

That’s true of people across the political spectrum, Tavris said, from liberals to conservatives.

In that tradition, she said, there’s “nothing unique about delusionally believing that voter fraud is widespread,” especially as national Republican leaders peddle that claim.

Changing one’s beliefs, even when presented with contrary evidence, is difficult, she said. Saying “’I was wrong’ is harder to admit than ‘They are wrong,’” Tavris said.

Tavris describes what happens next as a “pyramid of choice”: At the top of the pyramid, a person chooses whether to believe something. The person will then seek more evidence to support that initial choice, broadening the support for it, while rejecting any information that questions it.

That initial decision can be made for impulsive or trivial reasons, “but over time, throwing more justifications at that decision, it’s harder to change your mind without feeling you were stupid at the outset,” she said.

Still, with no evidence supporting widespread fraud, more Republicans are becoming confident in the accuracy of the 2020 election, with 38% saying they are confident now, up from 29% who said they were confident in August 2021, according to the latest Marquette Law School Poll.