POLITICO Playbook PM: Election denialism, by the numbers
One of the central facts of this election is that large swaths of the country dispute, without evidence, the legitimacy of the last one. Today, a handful of must-read stories lay out the depth, breadth and stakes of those claims:
299: That’s the number of Republican nominees for federal and top statewide offices across the country — an outright majority — who have either falsely denied the 2020 election outcome or questioned its legitimacy, WaPo’s Amy Gardner reports in today’s must-read big-picture story on the state of American democracy.
174: The number running in conservative seats they’re safely expected to win.
51: The number running in tight races with Democrats.
“Scholars said the predominance of election deniers in the GOP bears alarming similarities to authoritarian movements in other countries, which often begin with efforts to delegitimize elections,” Gardner writes. Clicker: Where they’re running around the country
$12 million: That’s how much money Republican secretary of state candidates who deny the 2020 election outcome have raised this cycle, according to a new Issue One analysis. As CNN’s Fredreka Schouten writes, the nonpartisan report finds that candidates like Arizona’s MARK FINCHEM and Michigan’s KRISTINA KARAMO have pulled in contributions from DONALD TRUMP’s Save America PAC, PATRICK BYRNE, RICHARD UIHLEIN, Florida businessman LEWIS TOPPER and other big funders.
$5 million: That’s how much the liberal group iVote is pumping into Democrat ADRIAN FONTES’ Arizona secretary of state campaign, Schouten scoops. All these totals, on both sides of the aisle, were previously unthinkable for once-sleepy secretary of state races — which now have taken on outsize import due to their power over election administration.
Three more reads on how baseless election fraud fears are changing politics:
— ProPublica’s Megan O’Matz goes long on how the lie of a stolen election has transformed Wisconsin, altering election rules and voting laws ahead of the midterms and paving the way for a fraught 2024 campaign. November offers “a chance to consolidate Republican power in the state and shape oversight of coming elections. Both ends of the political spectrum are keenly aware of the stakes.” O’Matz catalogs some of the key players — including Minnesota lawyer ERICK KAARDAL, who shows no signs of stopping his myriad election lawsuits, and HARRY WAIT, who was charged with election fraud for trying to expose election fraud.
— From Carrollton, Ohio, AP’s Julie Carr Smyth looks at the challenges and conspiracy theories exhausting local election officials: “If they wanted the answer, they would have come and asked us. We could give it to them,” one says. “But they don’t want the answer; they just want to harass.”
— As conspiracy theories swarm around ballot drop boxes, an Oath Keepers splinter group in Arizona, Lions of Liberty, is planning 24/7 (and potentially armed) surveillance of the drop boxes, Vice’s Tess Owen reports. Experts say other groups are likely to do the same elsewhere.
Good Thursday afternoon. The French autobiographical novelist ANNIE ERNAUX was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature this morning. Send us your picks for who should (or will) be named the Peace Prize laureate Friday: [email protected].
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — The Democratic fury over Saudi Arabia and OPEC+’s decision to slash oil production continued this morning: “[T]he royal Saudi family has never been a trustworthy ally of our nation,” tweeted Senate Majority Whip DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.), no backbencher. “It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance.”
In brief comments as he left the White House, President JOE BIDEN said the cartel’s move “is a disappointment and says that there are problems,” he said. But he didn’t regret his controversial trip to Saudi Arabia, which he called “not essentially for oil.”
Biden also said it “remains to be seen” whether he’ll meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN at the G-20.
IT’S OFFICIAL — The next House Jan. 6 committee public hearing will be Oct. 13 at 1 p.m.
BREAKING — “Federal judge halts key parts of New York’s new gun law,” AP
FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. Health Officials Urge Vigilance as Ebola Spreads in Uganda,” by NYT’s Apoorva Mandavilli: “There are no cases in the United States, but the C.D.C. wants doctors to be on the alert for patients with telltale symptoms.”
BIG PICTURE
HERE COMES TRUMP — MAGA Inc., the super PAC Trump formed to finally start spending his Save America PAC money on the midterms, has reserved its first TV ad buys: It’s going up in Ohio starting Friday, per Medium Buying.
IT’S THE STOCK MARKET, STUPID — After a rough year for stocks, Republicans are increasingly turning their messaging to voter worries about declining retirement accounts, Bloomberg’s Mike Dorning and Edward Harrison report. “Dropping balances in 401(k)s and IRAs have only just begun to surface as a concern among swing voters in focus groups.” And they could be particularly potent for older, wealthier voters.
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
SQUARE THIS CIRCLE — HERSCHEL WALKER’s latest denial of The Daily Beast’s stories on him paying for an abortion doesn’t quite jibe with his anti-abortion policy views: “If that had happened, I would have said there’s nothing to be ashamed of there,” Walker said on Hugh Hewitt’s show today. “People have done that — but I know nothing about it.” (POLITICO hasn’t independently verified the reporting.) Full transcript
In Marietta, HuffPost’s Igor Bobic finds that Republicans are willing to look past the news and support Walker: “I’m not crazy about him but he’s better than the alternative,” one voter says.
FACT CHECK — CNN’s Daniel Dale: “Herschel Walker has been running a TV ad in which he looks into the camera and falsely claims that RAPHAEL WARNOCK cut funding to the police. This assertion is so imaginary that Walker’s campaign hasn’t even responded to requests to identify what he’s talking about.”
CASH DASH — Pennsylvania Democratic nominee JOHN FETTERMAN pulled in $22 million in the third quarter, CNN’s Dan Merica scooped. That outstrips MEHMET OZ, who raised $17 million — $7 million of it from himself — over the same period.
ACCOUNTABILITY READ — Fetterman’s running on his record as lieutenant governor, but AP’s Marc Levy and Brian Slodysko dig through documents that show he “typically kept a light work schedule and was often absent from state business, including presiding over the state Senate, which is one of his chief duties.” His schedule was entirely blank for one-third of his pre-stroke workdays, and the other days often showed him working four or five hours. Fetterman’s campaign called the story “misleading and inaccurate” but failed to actually explain his schedule gaps.
ON WISCONSIN — From Madison, NYT’s Reid Epstein is the latest to write about Democrats worrying that MANDELA BARNES won’t make it through the barrage of Republican attack ads, especially on crime and policing. The intra-party concerns are twofold: that Barnes hasn’t been aggressive enough against Sen. RON JOHNSON (allowing the incumbent to frame the race), and that he isn’t exciting Black voters in Milwaukee enough. “Perhaps the clearest sign of Mr. Barnes’s political challenges is the lack of eagerness by some of his fellow Democrats to campaign with him.”
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE
KNOWING CHRIS DELUZIO — “The Populist Pugilist Vying to Replace Conor Lamb,” by The American Prospect’s Austin Ahlman in Penn Hills, Pa.: “Deluzio pushes a pro-labor, anti–corporate greed campaign against his opponent, self-funding millionaire businessman JEREMY SHAFFER. Like Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s run for Senate, Deluzio’s bid is something of a test case for Democrats who believe economic populism is the key to preserving their edge in former labor strongholds where Republicans have gained ground.”
JERSEY BOYS — If Democrats have any hope of holding the House, they’ll have to do it by winning upscale districts like that of Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI, whom redistricting initially seemed to doom but who’s now locked in a tight race with TOM KEAN JR., NYT’s Tracey Tully reports from Scotch Plains. House Majority PAC is starting to buy TV ads for the first time, indicating how Dems now believe the bellwether district might be salvageable thanks to moderates’ concerns about abortion. But it’s still seen as a “decidedly uphill battle for Mr. Malinowski.”
CLICKER — “The Seats Republicans Could Flip To Win The House In 2022,” by FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley and Ryan Best
HOT POLLS
— Arizona: CNN finds Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY leading BLAKE MASTERS 51% to 45%, and KATIE HOBBS leading KARI LAKE for governor 49% to 46%. But Finchem is up 49% to 45% over Fontes.
— Nevada: Good news for Republicans here from CNN: ADAM LAXALT leads Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO 48% to 46%, JOE LOMBARDO is beating Gov. STEVE SISOLAK with the same numbers, and secretary of state nominee JIM MARCHANT is ahead of CISCO AGUILAR 46% to 43%.
— New York: Trafalgar has an eye-popping outlier poll in the gubernatorial race: Democratic Gov. KATHY HOCHUL leads Rep. LEE ZELDIN just 45% to 43%. … But in a swing district upstate, Democrat JOSH RILEY is ahead 46% to 41% over MARC MOLINARO, per Spectrum News/Siena College. … In NYC, GOP Rep. NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS leads Democratic former Rep. MAX ROSE 49% to 43%, per Spectrum/Siena.
— Oregon: An internal poll from GOP House nominee MIKE ERICKSON has him ahead of ANDREA SALINAS 44% to 39%, per National Journal’s Hotline.
HOT ADS
With help from Steve Shepard
— National: “The 2022 Ad Wars,” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik: “[W]e watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, with Democrats trying to inoculate themselves by featuring law enforcement officers in their ads.”
— Nevada: Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO’snew ad spotlights Republican ADAM LAXALT’s support for Trump-fueled conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and says Laxalt “promised to sue if this year’s election doesn’t go his way, because Adam Laxalt thinks he should pick the winner, not you.”
— Pennsylvania: In his latest ad, Oz connects the flagging economy with his medical background. “This economy is causing anxiety, depression, fear,” Oz says, adding: “A doctor can help fix it.”
— Wisconsin: BRAD PFAFF, the Democratic nominee for an open House seat in Western Wisconsin, launched a new ad highlighting that his GOP opponent, DERRICK VAN ORDEN, was at the Capitol on Jan. 6. “Now he wants us to believe he’s a patriot,” a veteran says of Van Orden. “Mr. Van Orden, patriots defend their country. They don’t try to burn it down.”
MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT
ON THE TRUMP TEAM — Trump lawyer CHRIS KISE has joined the boutique Miami-area firm Continental, linking the former president to “a stable of Trump loyalists with deep Florida GOP ties and attorneys who describe their mission as a legal antidote to ‘woke cancel culture,’” NBC’s Marc Caputo scooped. Continental could bolster Trump with some legal firepower — and South Florida know-how — after many big firms have stayed away.
POLICY CORNER
ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — The American Petroleum Institute is considering getting behind a clean fuel standard for transportation, WaPo’s Maxine Joselow scooped. The oil-and-gas trade association is holding a meeting on the matter today, which could be the second big climate policy endorsed by the group following its support for a carbon tax last year.
THE ECONOMY
THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims last week jumped much higher than expected, rising 29,000 to 219,000, per Reuters. But that number may be distorted somewhat by the impact of Hurricane Fiona on Puerto Rico. Overall, the labor market still looks pretty tight, though this could be an early indicator of some cooling.
WAR IN UKRAINE
CASHING IN — Though most U.S. military aid to Ukraine has come from the government, the Biden administration has also allowed private sales to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars — opening up a shadow world of arms sales to all kinds of unlikely players, NYT’s Justin Scheck reports from Eureka, Mo. One $30 million deal proposed by a limousine businessman and a doctor in the St. Louis suburbs was set to go through — until Scheck started asking questions about “why the deal relied on falsified documents to evade foreign export laws.”
APOCALYPSE NOW — International Atomic Energy Agency head RAFAEL MARIANO GROSSI is visiting Ukraine today amid concerns about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russia said Wednesday it would “nationalize.” New Russian missiles rained down on the city of Zaporizhzhia today, about 30 miles northeast of the power station, Ukraine said. More from the NYT
THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING — Authorities in Alaska said two Russian men sailed across the Bering Strait in an attempt to escape Putin’s military mobilization, KTUU-TV reported.
ABORTION FALLOUT
THE NEW TOPOGRAPHY — Since the end of Roe v. Wade, 26 clinics offering abortions have shut down and another 40 have stopped offering the procedure across 15 states, per a new Guttmacher Institute report, writes Megan Messerly. Now abortion is all but entirely inaccessible in 14 of the states, plus severely limited access in Georgia. Roughly 167,000 abortions took place across those states two years ago.
MEDIAWATCH
NUZZI ON HABERMAN — NYT’s MAGGIE HABERMAN sits down with N.Y. Mag’s Olivia Nuzzi to talk Trump, “Harold and the Purple Crayon” and her new book, “Confidence Man”: “I think the coverage of him as a candidate in 2016 was very rigorous, and it was an overwhelmingly unflattering portrait. It was very clear, and I think it should have been clear to voters,” Haberman says. “But I also think that the gap between what a lot of voters outside New York City thought he was versus who he actually was and what kind of businessman he was was pretty vast.”
PLAYBOOKERS
TRANSITION — Alex Gibson is now deputy comms director at the Zero Emission Transportation Association. He previously was comms consultant at the American Apparel & Footwear Association.
WEEKEND WEDDING —Carly Krystyniak, district representative for Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) and a Conor Lamb alum, and William Bird, resident at Rochester General Hospital, got married this weekend at the National Aviary in Pittsburgh. The couple met at a mutual friend’s house — Carly introduced herself to Will, forgetting they had previously met. He hadn’t. Pic … Another pic
