UK health authorities have known for months that the chance of a benefit from covid injections is “rare” to “very rare”

In the 40-49 age group, almost 1 million people would need to be “boosted” to prevent one hospitalisation according to the Department for Health and Social Care. This is according to information presented by UKHSA in October 2022.

The previous month, a study published in the journal Vaccine estimated 1 in 800 people vaccinated were harmed by the covid injections. 

There has been no benefit and only harm from the injections and UK health authorities knew this in October last year, if not sooner.

Yesterday we published an article about The Telegraph changing the headline of an article.  The original version highlighted that the UK covid vaccination programme was being wound down. “Third doses were launched in Dec 2021 but will end on Feb 12, the UKHSA has announced. The current autumn booster drive for over-50s will also end on the same day,” the article stated. “The open-door policy of Covid boosters for the healthy and young is being ended because following initial widespread uptake, there has been limited uptake recently.”

The Telegraph was reporting on a statement published on 25 January 2023 by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (“JCVI”).  On the same day, the Department of Health & Social Care (“DHSC”) also published a statement along similar lines but with more detail.

Dr. Clare Craig, a Diagnostic Pathologist and co-Chair of the HART Group, looked at Appendix 1 attached to the DHSC statement and revealed in a Twitter thread the real reason behind the UK Health Security Agency (“UKHSA”) winding down the covid vaccination programme.

“The UK government have finally done the only calculation that matters to patients regarding vaccination,” she wrote. 

The calculation Dr. Craig is referring to is the estimated number of people that need to be vaccinated to prevent one hospitalisation.  Based on a UKHSA presentation to the JCVI on 25 October 2022, DHSC calculated that, for example, for healthy people aged 40-49, almost 1 million people would need an autumn booster to prevent a single intensive care admission. 

And for the first two doses for the same age group, DHSC calculated around 190,000 people would have had to be vaccinated to prevent one hospitalisation.  So even with the first dose, the estimated harm of 1 in 800 vaccinated people far outweighs the benefit of 1 in 190,000.

What is the number needed to vaccinate and why does it matter?

Twitter thread by Dr. Clare Craig

The UK government have finally done the only calculation that matters to patients regarding vaccination and the answer is not pretty.

To understand the benefit of a drug, the simplest way to present the data is to tell you how many people need to be treated for one to have the desired outcome.

For the covid vaccines, for healthy people aged 40-49, for example, 932,500 people would need an autumn booster in order to prevent a single intensive care admission.  [In other words,] the chances of preventing an ICU admission were almost 1 in a million.

For the primary course in over 70-year-olds “only” 2,500 needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single ICU admission.

Oddly data for older age groups is sparse in this table.

When discussing harms from a drug these are the terms used to label how frequently they occur.

Using these terms, the chance of a benefit from taking the drug in terms of an over 70-year-old avoiding ICU was *rare*.

The chance, even for the primary course, for anyone under 60 was *very rare*.

Critically, the number needed to harm from injection is considerably higher than the number needed to benefit.

One estimate, based only on a short period of follow-up in the trials, was 1 in 800 who required hospitalisations.

Read more: Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults, ScienceDirect, 22 September 2022

The UK government have now said that for 12- to 15-year-olds, 162,600 would need to be injected to benefit, in terms of avoiding a single ICU admission.

In the meantime, the risk for young boys is at least 1 in 10,000 for myocarditis – just one adverse event.

Read more: Is myocarditis risk worse after vaccination or infection or both? HART Group, 10 June 2022

The risk-benefit equation never stood up to scrutiny.

It is notable that these figures were discussed on 8^th November.

Both Dr. Aseem Malhotra and HART Group had published the number needed to be vaccinated in September. Had no one in power asked that question before then?

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Featured image: Birmingham mosque becomes UK’s first to offer Covid vaccine, BBC, 21 January 2021