Putin Went to War but Refuses to Fight

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

“Russia’s elites have no stomach for this fight and a deal is being worked out through backroom channels.”

https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2023/02/22/russia-has-no-strategy-for-winning-this-war/

As I have pointed out again and again and now again, Putin’s idiotic–indeed mindless–way of conducting war has destroyed the credibility of the Russian military.  I am becoming convinced that the outcome of the nonsensical “limited military operation” will be either Russian surrender or nuclear war.  By continuing to encourage provocation on top of provocation, Putin is backing himself into a corner where his only option is surrender or nuclear war.  It is extraordinary that the Kremlin does not realize the danger in the picture of weakness and indecision that the Kremlin and Western propaganda have created.

If soon a Russian/Chinese mutual defense treaty is not announced and Putin does not use sufficient force to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine, unless Russia surrenders nuclear war is a certainty.

At the present time Victoria Nuland has more control over the conflict in Ukraine than does Putin.  The President of Russia is vastly overshadowed by the neoconservative Undersecretary of State.  She has already completely frustrated Putin’s “limited military operation” and turned it into a far wider war.  She has succeeded in removing all the barriers to the expansion of the war that Biden proclaimed.  Given that the Kremlin is all talk and no action, how long before there will be American/Nato troops assaulting Crimea?

It seems Putin Has Been Drawn Into a War that He Doesn’t Want to Fight.

The Rand Corporation is the Military/Security Complex’s Think Tank.  The comments by its members confirm my reporting that Putin’s “No-war War” has destroyed the credibility of Russia’s military.  Are Russian nationalists so politically weak that the pro-West Atlanticist Integrationists can prevent a Russian victory?  https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/02/one-year-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html

Putin’s failure to use the necessary force to subdue Ukraine has increased the confidence of US policymakers and will lead to more provocations of Russia.  In effect, the neoconservatives have dismissed Putin as a capable opponent.  There is  danger in this conclusion.

China faces a similar situation.  China won’t go to war because 100 US soldiers are sent to Taiwan.  When next 1,000 arrive, that’s not enough to fight over either.  The failure of Chinese reaction, other than angry words, will encourage more US intervention until nuclear weapons are deployed in Taiwan.

The reason the neoconservatives are so confident is that neither the Russian nor Chinese governments seem capable of acknowledging reality. Their intellectual failure to comprehend is boxing them in and leading to nuclear war.