How the anti-vax movement went mainstream

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TRUST DEFICIT — An anti-vaccine political movement that once existed on the fringes is rising in political prominence and propelling the fortunes of at least two 2024 candidates — Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis. The pair espouse different positions and hail from different parties, but they have one thing in common: they are tapping into — and advancing — a resurgence in skepticism about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.

As POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn writes today in the first of a five-part series about the mainstreaming of the anti-vax movement, the Biden administration — which vowed to restore Americans’ faith in public health — has grown increasingly paralyzed over how to combat the rising appeal of anti-vaccine activism.

Federal health officials blame the movement for advancing dangerous conspiracy theories and bolstering a Covid-era backlash to the nation’s broader public health practices. Yet as President Joe Biden seeks a second term, the White House has no appetite for a high-profile vaccine fight and limited tools to wage it.

To get a sense of the politics surrounding an increasingly influential anti-vaccine movement and how its mainstreaming could affect public health, Nightly spoke with Cancryn today about the mainstreaming of anti-vaccine skepticism, how we got here and whether the Biden administration can quell vaccine fears. This interview has been edited.

How concerned is the White House about the resurgence of anti-vaccine skepticism?

The White House sees the issue largely through the lens of preserving the progress that it’s made on Covid, where vaccines remain the main defense against a big resurgence of the virus. That means that not only does the administration need to continue developing better Covid shots, it also needs to make sure people take the shots once they’re available.

So there continues to be a good amount of thought that goes into building trust and communicating that vaccines are safe and effective. But there’s also a recognition that the White House itself can only do so much in such a politicized atmosphere, where anything directly tied to Biden will be instantly seen as partisan by half the country. That, more than anything, has forced the White House to moderate its ambitions.

What is the administration doing about it? Is there any way to put the genie back in the bottle?

The White House has delegated much of its public health activities back to its various health agencies now that the immediate Covid crisis is over. The thinking is that those agencies are better equipped to run the longer-term initiatives required to slowly build trust and combat misinformation, and that they’re seen as less inherently political entities than the White House. But the downside is that it’s become harder to find the resources to run the kind of major effort that could make a dent in vaccine skepticism, because Congress and, to a degree, the White House, has moved on to other priorities. That’s left the health agencies to try to mount as significant a response as they can, but with the acknowledgment they’re going to be pretty limited in funding and reach.

How did this once-fringe movement of anti-vaxxers become mainstreamed?

Anti-vaccine sentiment has always been around in some form, but during the pandemic we saw an explosion of conspiracy theories and misinformation spread largely through social media at the same time that suddenly everyone was trying to make sense of Covid, what it meant for them and which information they could trust.

Those conspiracies have since become entwined with political theories that originated mostly on the right, where conservative influencers spread claims and misinformation about the Covid vaccines that were eventually echoed by members of Congress and other prominent GOP leaders — perhaps most notably, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. That’s politicized vaccines overall to some extent, and made it difficult for Biden officials or even just public health experts to push back on false info without being dismissed by vaccine-skeptical conservatives as partisans trying to advance a political agenda.

Looking back to the onset of the pandemic, were there important mileposts along the way, or pivotal moments that brought us to this place in our public debate?

The emergence of the Delta variant in the late summer of 2021 was perhaps the most damaging moment for faith in the vaccines, because it severed what until then had been broad bipartisan support for Biden’s vaccination campaign. The county had stuck together for seven months, believing we had beaten Covid for good. When that turned out to be wrong, it undermined confidence in the administration’s expertise, split Washington politically over how to react and allowed anti-vaxxers to amplify all sorts of false claims about the shots.

The other milepost that sticks in my mind was House Democrats’ decision in March 2022 to strip $15 billion in Covid funding from a spending bill, over an intraparty dispute that turned out to be minor in hindsight. Democrats never got a second chance to pass that large a package again, as GOP opposition to more funding hardened, and it forced the White House to pare back what until then had been a really robust Covid response operation.

How is this playing out across the 2024 presidential landscape? It would seem vaccine or vaccine-adjacent issues seem to be getting a good bit of attention on both sides.

DeSantis has tried hard to make Covid — and his opposition to much of the federal response — a centerpiece of his presidential campaign, as a way to distinguish himself from former President Donald Trump. That’s included leaning well into anti-vaxx territory, most recently falsely claiming that the newest Covid shot is neither safe nor effective.

But across the GOP field, we’ve seen candidates making clear they’re opposed to vaccine mandates and casting the decision to get vaccinated as a personal choice, rather than the collective action public health experts say is crucial to keeping the broader population safe. Even Trump, who oversaw the development of the initial vaccine, seems aware that legacy is doing him no favors. In a recent interview, he vowed “not to talk about it one way or the other.”

As for Biden, the vaccines are a key piece of the narrative that his administration led the U.S. out of the pandemic and into a successful economic recovery. But there’s also recognition among his aides that voters don’t particularly want to hear about Covid anymore, or think about the pandemic. So as Biden gets further into the campaign, expect to see his team try to separate what resonates (the Covid response’s success) with what doesn’t (the reality that Covid is still with us).

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“I’d encourage you to remember that these nights are merely a single moment in time,” Scott’s campaign manager, Jennifer DeCasper, wrote in a memo to donors obtained by POLITICO. “Any candidate who hopes to truly capitalize on it must be disciplined and built for the long haul.”

The memo, an effort to frame expectations for the next debate, follows the first debate in August during which the South Carolina senator faded into the background for long stretches, sparking concern among some supporters. It does nothing to suggest that Scott will deviate from once again being Mr. Nice Guy on stage, arguing he ultimately stands to benefit from his likable demeanor.

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Mike Donilon, a senior White House adviser, is telling anxious Democrats that two issues — abortion and Donald Trump — will propel Biden to re-election, according to people familiar with the matter. In those private conversations, Democrats have been struck by top White House aides’ confidence. Some worry it’s hubris. Biden officials dismiss most of the growing concern over impeachment headlines, Hunter Biden’s indictment, an immigration crisis, the president’s age, an economy that voters don’t love, and an auto strike that’s testing Biden’s union support.

Instead, the White House plans to continue its Rose Garden strategy, with a three-pronged message that focuses on protecting democracy, abortion rights and a resilient economy, including a historically low unemployment rate.

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Clapton joins a growing list of celebrities who have spoken out in support of Kennedy, including the candidate’s wife, Cheryl Hines, Rob Schneider and Alicia Silverstone. The Curb Your Enthusiasm actress posted a photo with Woody Harrelson on Kennedy’s Instagram in August, but the actor insisted in a statement to USA Today that the photo wasn’t necessarily an endorsement.

Clapton, Kennedy and Harrelson have all been outspoken against COVID-19 vaccines. The “Wonderful Tonight” singer received the AstraZeneca vaccines and said he had “severe reactions” that made him worried he wouldn’t play the guitar again.

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Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian leadership agreed to a cease-fire this morning in an effort to prevent further bloodshed as Azerbaijani forces made major advances in the breakaway region. The fragile cease-fire throws into doubt the future for the region’s estimated 100,000 Armenian residents, who have for three decades maintained their autonomy from Azerbaijan, behind a fortified line of bunkers, land mines and trenches. Azerbaijan took back swathes of territory in Nagorno-Karabakh during a war in 2020, triggering a complete exodus of residents from the areas that changed hands.

Azerbaijan insists it will offer the Karabakh Armenians rights and security if they accept Azerbaijani citizenship, but international observers including the EU have been quick to warn that years of violence combined with fiery racial rhetoric from Baku’s authoritarian government make reconciliation more difficult.

Representatives of the Karabakh Armenians will meet with the Azerbaijani government on Thursday in the city of Yevlakh, to the north east of the region. According to the office of Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, the talks will focus on “issues of reintegration,” and it is expected that the delegates will be told to begin the process of dismantling their three decades-old unrecognized state.

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Emmanuel Macron may be about to give him a leg up.

Macron’s Renaissance party is frantically searching for the best candidate to lead its campaign in next year’s European Parliament elections. Whoever gets that role would be well placed to become the party’s nominee to take over from Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president when her term ends after the elections next June.

According to reports in French media, and officials familiar with discussions inside Macron’s team, Breton, a flamboyant former telecoms executive and France’s current EU commissioner, is now firmly in the mix.

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