With 2024 Looming, QAnon is Down But Not Out | Geopolitical Monitor

QAnon – a right-wing online conspiracy theory that has become an ideological movement – has lost its shine, but the US presidential election represents the possibility for new online and physical threats.

Numerous events led QAnon to post itself as an international threat actor in 2021. First and foremost, Donald Trump lost the election and failed to be inaugurated in March 2021 contrary to its essential prophecies. Adherents then shifted their narrative towards hostility to the vaccine rollout, particularly pharmaceutical companies. Post-pandemic, evidence of QAnon hostility online and in the real world significantly decreased, but Trump’s indictment during the summer of 2023 is giving the group a perfect opportunity to reemerge.

In August, the popular forum 4chan (QAnon emerged on a 4chan post in 2017 in the form of a user (or users) called ‘Q’) known by all in the counter-extremism community as the place to look for emerging calls for violence following political events, terrorist manifestos, and white supremacist plotting, was flooded with private information about members of the Georgia grand jury that indicted former president Trump. One adherent referred to grand juror’s names as a ‘hit list,’ according to Salon. While threats on message boards seldom materialize into real-world action, they nonetheless contribute to galvanizing an otherwise dying movement. This was further materialized by the arrest in August of a Texas woman who threatened to kill district judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing the case involving Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Then there is the key catalyst that will be on the radar of the security community in 2024: the upcoming presidential election.

A new Biden-Trump confrontation (appearing likely) during the upcoming presidential election in 2024 will most certainly pour fuel on the QAnon fire. Known to spread disinformation, Trump’s comments will provide the group with material to keep targeting its ideological enemies, namely Democrats, members of a perceived ‘deep state,’ or those involved in supposed child sex trafficking by the imagined deep state.

What type of online or physical threat does QAnon pose, both in terms of intent and capability? In 2019, the FBI classified QAnon as a potential ‘domestic terrorist threat.’ Since 2017, there have been at least five instances of violent attacks where the beliefs of QAnon influenced the perpetrators. The QAnon movement has maintained an active online presence for the past six years, with its doctrines serving as inspiration for, or appearing to influence, acts of violence and conspiracies by adherent extremists. During the storming of the Capitol on January 6, dozens of QAnon followers played a prominent role, marking the first and only instance of collective political violence involving QAnon adherents. The sole other alleged group action involved a thwarted plot in October 2020 to kidnap the Michigan governor, with 13 individuals, at least one of whom had propagated QAnon-related conspiracies online.

However, resembling the pattern observed in numerous right-wing extremist incidents in the US, the five documented attacks driven by the QAnon conspiracy since 2017 were all executed by solitary individuals. Likewise, there have been at least two additional abduction schemes influenced by QAnon conspiracy theories, all orchestrated by lone actors. The common characteristic among the victims or intended targets of these plans was that the perpetrators perceived them to be implicated in the QAnon conspiracy, viewing them as members of a ‘deep state’ or participants in alleged child sex trafficking orchestrated by the imagined deep state. Primarily, these attacks focused on individuals with identifiable liberal affiliations, such as politicians or private citizens suspected or known to oppose Trump, hence being perceived as part of the conspiracy they ardently believed in.

As an illustration, in 2019, a man fatally shot someone he believed to be a member of the ‘deep state’ in Staten Island. In July 2021, a QAnon follower, armed with a gun, attempted to break into the residence of the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Additionally, in April 2020, an engineer tried to derail a train headed for a US Navy ship deployed to California for Covid-19 response. The engineer claimed he thought the ship had a different purpose linked to an alleged government takeover. Following an unrelated pipe bomb attack on a testing center in the Netherlands in March, a QAnon adherent on Telegram expressed the view that similar attacks “should be happening everywhere in the US.”

The decline of QAnon can be attributed to a series of factors, including failed prophecies regarding Mr. Trump’s reelection, social media companies cracking down on QAnon accounts, and the temporary suppression of Parler— a key communication platform for the group—following the 2021 Capitol storming. Consequently, the movement saw a loss of followers, both among those less adept in technology and others who shifted to alternative encrypted platforms like Telegram and Gab. Telegram gained 25 million subscribers within 72 hours post-crackdown, while Gab experienced a staggering 753% increase in traffic. Presently, platforms such as Gab, Telegram, and 4chan still harbor the most radicalized adherents, albeit with significantly reduced traffic compared to the past.

QAnon movement’s efforts to rebuild itself with the presidential elections exactly a year from now have thus far proven largely unsuccessful. The movement seems to have lost most online traction, is still leaderless, and suffered real-world consequences in the shape of several arrests in the past years. But certain present and future catalysts serve as opportunities for followers of ‘Q’ to try and gain momentum. Any decision going against Trump’s favor regarding the ongoing indictment cases will most likely be reused by online adherents to further sustain their conspiracy theory. So will comments from Trump in the weeks leading to the election. Threatening rhetoric towards liberal figures, minorities, and those opposed to Trump will likely intensify.

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