Conspiracy theories continue to mobilize extremists to violence
26 June 2024
By: Cody Zoschak & Katherine Keneally
In recent months, conspiracy theories have once again proven their ability to effectively motivate extremists to change behavior and even engage in violence – a trend that is likely to continue throughout 2024. In the United States, adherents of conspiracy theories have gone on to kill their own children and other family members, threatened public officials, and attempted to commit attacks against the US government. While these incidents rarely garner significant public attention unless they feature a notable death toll or a headline-grabbing action (e.g. Comet Ping Pong Pizza attack), several recent events suggest that conspiracy theories continue to be powerful motivators to action. These narratives will likely continue to influence violence and other harmful activities leading up to November elections in the US, particularly as the spread of dangerous conspiracy theories online remains unchecked.
Despite a lack of significant news coverage, three recent incidents have highlighted the ability of conspiracy theories to motivate extremists to action. In April 1) a South Carolina man rammed his vehicle into the gate of the FBI Field Office in Atlanta, and 2) a Massachusetts man was arrested with illegal firearms and bomb-making materials. In May 3) an Illinois man was arrested for being a felon in possession of pipe bombs and firearms. Analysis of these individuals’ social media accounts revealed a mix of conspiratorial and extremist beliefs that likely motivated their actions. These incidents occurred a few months after a tragic incident in which a man – apparently motivated by a mix of anti-government ideology and conspiratorial beliefs – allegedly killed and then beheaded his father for previously working as federal employee.
The Intersection of Extremism and Conspiracy Theories
A person’s belief in one or more conspiracy theories does not inherently mean they are extremist or are likely to commit violence – conspiracy theories are often harmless and there is evidence to suggest that a large number of Americans believe in at least one conspiracy theory. However, conspiracy theories have played an important part in many extremist communities, often serving as a tool for radicalization, recruitment and mobilization. While conspiracy theory communities do not always embrace the in-group/out-group supremacist dynamics associated with radicalized extremists, some theories do instill an apocalyptic or zero-sum worldview that identifies a perceived enemy amongst followers. Common narratives in conspiracy theories that have led to violence include loss, grievance, and resentment; us versus them or good versus evil; secrets, lies, and power; threats to innocent victims; and end-of-the-world narratives. Research by ISD experts has described how conspiratorial beliefs can influence and motivate terrorist attacks, among other types of violence.
Conspiracy theories have power beyond the tight-knit communities created around them. While violence has emerged directly from the QAnon, anti-lockdown, and anti-5G communities, the ability of conspiracy theories to mobilize already radicalized extremists to violence should not be neglected. The gruesome murder of Michael Mohn allegedly by his son, Justin Mohn, in January 2024 exemplifies this dynamic. ISD analysts previously assessed that Mohn held anti-government extremist beliefs since at least 2016. In the video he posted shortly after the death of his father, he vocalized a variety of conspiracy theories aimed at the US government, as well as migrant and LGBTQ+ communities. It is likely that these conspiracy theories played a role in mobilizing Mohn, an already radicalized individual, to violence.
The three recent incidents in Georgia, Massachusetts and Illinois clearly did not escalate to the same level of severity as the Mohn attack. However, they represent a similar phenomenon and a significant cause for concern.
Recent Incidents Reflect Shifting Threat
ISD analysts conducted a review of three violent incidents in spring 2024 and determined the incidents were likely – at least in part – motivated by conspiracy theories. On April 1, Ervin Lee Bolling, a 48-year-old Navy veteran, was arrested by federal authorities after allegedly ramming a vehicle into a gate at the FBI’s Atlanta field office. Similarly, on April 3, 2024, local law enforcement said to have raided the home of 61-year-old Thomas Callan in Mansfield, MA, seizing unregistered firearms, ammunition, and components that could be used to assemble improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Lastly, on May 17, Dalton Mattus, 34, was arrested at his home on charges of felon in possession of a weapon and possession of incendiary devices.
A review of social media accounts assessed to belong to Bolling, Callan and Mattus, as well as relevant media reporting, suggests that these individuals likely subscribed to extremist ideologies and engaged with conspiracy theories online.
The accounts linked to Bolling across a variety of platforms such as X, YouTube and Telegram showed indications of wanting to join a militia and subscribing to conspiracy theories related to elections, QAnon and vaccines.
The social media accounts connected to Callan suggest he adheres to sovereign citizen ideology and engaged with similar conspiracy theories as Bolling.
Mattus’ alleged accounts expressed a desire to participate in a civil war and similarly shared dozens of conspiratorial posts on Facebook and TikTok in the last few years related to COVID-19, elections, 9/11, immigration, chemtrails, and the media, among other topics.
Anti-government sentiment was the common thread between the three individuals. While QAnon and militia groups often feature the supremacism and in/out-group dynamics typical of extremist movements, the overarching narrative of those groups – as well as the others that Callan and Bolling engaged with – is that the government is actively working to suppress the rights of the citizenry.
For Mattus, who likely did not associate with any groups but appears to have expressed anti-government beliefs online[1] — such as believing the election was stolen— his anti-government sentiment was likely developed through a mix of engagement with conspiracy theories and personal interactions with government agencies related to family issues. It is difficult to identify specific triggers for anti-government extremists, but when combined with a conspiratorial mindset, even common or innocuous news items can potentially mobilize them to violence or other illegal activity.
Figure 1. Post to the Facebook linked to Mattus from April 2021, reflecting anti-government beliefs.
Mattus, who is said to had stockpiled several pipe bombs and a firearm, did not carry out an act of violence, but reportedly told law enforcement that he was in possession of the weapons for protection against “undocumented immigrants and a corrupt government,” mirroring conspiratorial rhetoric espoused on his social media and indicating that he may have been primed to use violence if triggered. This stockpiling of weapons and explosives is of obvious concern, but without further information about the suspect’s intentions it is difficult to determine whether there were plans for action. Bolling did not explicitly reveal his motivations, but his tactics and choice of target resembles others mobilized to action by conspiracy theories. Without further information it is impossible to determine what Bolling would have done if he gained access, but an attack on FBI agents or facilities is consistent with several anti-government conspiracy theories and extremist movements, such as QAnon.
Conclusion: What Comes Next
The conspiracy theories that motivated these three individuals (and new ones that will likely surround the 2024 elections) will likely continue to spread online, increasing the potential for harm. For example, the unfounded conspiracy theories surrounding 2020 US elections remain widespread on social media despite repeated failed lawsuits and a lack of evidence. On X, verified accounts with millions of followers continue to amplify election conspiracy theories similar to those Bolling and Mattus engaged with, garnering thousands of shares and millions of views. For example, a single post[2] by the prominent conspiracy theorist Alex Jones on May 11, 2024, claiming it has been proven that the 2020 election was stolen received over 89K interactions (and an attached video garnered over 2 million views).[3] Election denying claims alone represent a significant cross-platform problem– between May 3-20, 2024, analysts identified more than 8K posts across alt-tech platforms, with the majority on Truth Social and Gabs.[4]
Figure 2. X post shared by Alex Jones claiming the “2020 election was stolen.”
These narratives not only undermine democratic institutions and processes, but these incidents reflect the physical danger they also pose. For radicalized individuals, whose worldviews are warped by these theories and who are already primed to commit violence, political developments and other events have the potential to serve as catalysts to action. The pervasiveness of conspiracy theories is widespread online, making it extremely difficult to predict who will be motivated to violence or other activities. However, by examining the conspiracy theories consumed by extremists, analysts can better understand the potential mobilizing concept underpinning extremist action – a necessary step towards the goal of violence prevention.
End notes
[1] Based on an analysis of social media accessible to analysts. It is possible that Mattus held anti-government beliefs earlier; however, Mattus did post content suggesting support for President Donald Trump, suggesting he may have had some degree of trust in government prior to November 2020.
[2] There is no indication that Bolling or Mattus engaged with this particular post.
[3] According to X’s analytics.
[4] Obtained using Pyrra.
