Why Russia Will Defeat NATO in Ukraine

NATO’s three-day summit in Washington DC achieved the objective for which it was designed, to create a public forum in which all 32 members of the Alliance could express their unanimous support for upcoming attacks on the Russian Federation. That was the real purpose of the confab. The managers of the event, sought a dramatic display of unity to justify future hostilities with Moscow and to reduce the possibility that any one person would be held responsible for starting World War 3.

The summit was followed by the release of a formal Declaration which strongly suggests that the decision to go war has already been made. As many people know, NATO has green-lighted a policy that allows the firing of missiles at targets inside Russian territory. This policy will also apply to the numerous NATO F-16s that will be deployed to Ukraine sometime in the near future. (F-16s can carry nuclear missiles) Despite overwhelming support for these policies among the members, we must not forget that these are blatant acts of aggression that are forbidden under international law. No amount of public relations hoopla can conceal the fact that NATO is on-track to commit the “supreme crime”.

It’s worth noting, that NATO intends to take a more active role in the conduct of the war. According to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the Alliance plans to formally establish a NATO office inside Ukraine that will be used to oversee military operations. In short, the managers of the conflict no longer have any interest in concealing their involvement. This is now a NATO operation. Here’s an excerpt from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:

This NATO office will accompany the creation of a NATO command to oversee the war in Ukraine, transitioning the provision of weapons and logistical oversight from an ad hoc group led by the United States to the NATO alliance itself.

Sullivan’s remarks outlined the main agenda items of the three-day summit in Washington, which is expected to signal a major escalation of the conflict with Russia in Ukraine and plans to significantly increase NATO’s capabilities to fight a full-scale war throughout Europe….

He said the summit will also announce “a new NATO military command in Germany led by a three-star general that will launch a training, equipping, and force development program for Ukrainian troops….”

The creation of a NATO office in Kiev and the reorganization of weapons provision, training and military logistics under a direct NATO command marks the end of any pretense that the conflict in Ukraine is not a war between NATO and Russia. It marks a dangerous new phase in the war, raising the prospect of a major escalation. Washington summit will announce plans to set up NATO office inside Ukraine, WSWS

Add all of this to the fact that the Summit Declaration posits that Ukraine is now on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership, and it becomes clear that every effort is being made to provoke Moscow.

Not surprisingly, Russia was thoroughly demonized in the Declaration which follows the familiar pattern we have seen with other enemies of Washington including Saddam, Qaddafi and Assad. Here’s a brief summary of “evil” Russia directly from the text:

Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security…

Russia bears sole responsibility for its war of aggression against Ukraine, a blatant violation of international law, including the UN Charter.

There can be no impunity for Russian forces’ and officials’ abuses and violations of human rights, war crimes, and other violations of international law.

Russia is responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians and has caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.

We condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s horrific attacks on the Ukrainian people, including on hospitals, on 8 July…

We are determined to constrain and contest Russia’s aggressive actions and to counter its ability to conduct destabilizing activities towards NATO and Allies… Washington Summit Declaration, NATO

Washington’s ferocious repudiation of Russia leaves no doubt as to where all this is heading. It’s headed for war.

The authors of this declaration were reiterating the views of the billionaire elites who are determined to roll-back Russia’s battlefield gains, topple the political leaders in Moscow, and splinter the country into smaller, more-manageable statlets. Russia represents the most formidable obstacle to Washington’s overall geopolitical strategy of projecting power into Asia, encircling China, and establishing itself as the preeminent power in the world’s most prosperous region. These strategic objectives are invariably omitted in the media’s coverage, but they are the underlying factors that shape events. Here’s Biden:

In Europe, Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues. And Putin wants nothing less than Ukraine’s total subjugation; to end Ukraine’s democracy; to destroy Ukraine’s culture; and to wipe Ukraine off the map.

And we know Putin won’t stop at Ukraine. But make no mistake, Ukraine can and will stop Putin — (applause) — especially with our full, collective support. And they have our full support. “Ukraine can and will stop Putin.” The White House

It’s all nonsense, but it helps to build the case for war which is Biden’s obvious intention. (Here’s John Mearsheimer’s response to Biden’s claim that Putin wants to conquer Europe. You Tube; :30 second mark)

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The truth is that the war was triggered by NATO enlargement, an inconvenient fact that NATO chairman Jens Stoltenberg has admitted on numerous occasions. Some readers might also recall that—during the peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow in April 2022—Russia’s primary demand was that Ukraine reject NATO membership and declare permanent neutrality. Zelensky agreed to those terms which, in effect, prove that Putin’s action was linked to NATO expansion. There is virtually no proof that Putin wants to conquer Europe. None. Putin simply wants Ukraine to honor its treaty obligations regarding neutrality. Check out this excerpt by Ted Snider at Antiwar.com:

Ukraine.. promised to stay out of NATO. Its non-alignment was enshrined in the foundational documents of the independent state of Ukraine.

Article IX of the 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine states that Ukraine “solemnly declares its intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs.” That promise was repeated in Ukraine’s 1996 Constitution, which committed Ukraine to neutrality and prohibited it from joining any military alliance. But in 2019, President Petro Poroshenko amended the Ukrainian Constitution, committing Ukraine to the “strategic course” of NATO and EU membership.

Given NATO’s past behavior, this was viewed as a direct threat by Russia. When asked in 2023 if Russia still recognizes the sovereignty of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov answered, “We recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine back in 1991 on the basis of the Declaration of Independence, which Ukraine adopted when it withdrew from the Soviet Union… One of the main points for [Russia] in the declaration was that Ukraine would be a non-bloc non-alliance country; it would not join any military alliances… In that version, on those conditions, we support Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” NATO’s 75th Anniversary: The Broken Promises That Led to War, Antiwar.com

The issue, of course, could have been resolved long ago if Washington had acted in good faith, but Washington has not acted in good faith. In fact, Washington is still determined to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia in order to implement its “pivot to Asia” strategy to ensure its future as the world’s only unchallenged superpower. These goals cannot be achieved without escalation, confrontation and a full-blown war. The NATO summit is merely a prelude to a broader and more violent conflict between the nuclear superpowers.

The question we should being asking ourselves is whether NATO can actually win a war with Russia. Can it?

The answer is “No”, it cannot.

Why?

Here’s how military analyst Will Schryver answers that question:

I have done my research — for years, dating back long before 2022…. I repeatedly warned that it (Ukraine) was a war the US/NATO could never win….There is a VAST difference between the “on paper” strength of NATO (including the US) and their actual war-fighting capability. The US could not assemble, equip, field, and sustain even 250k combat effectives in eastern Europe, and any attempt to do so would necessitate the evacuation of every major US base on the planet. The US/NATO not only could not win a war against Russia, but they would be eviscerated in the attempt.

Alerted by the US/NATO destruction of Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya, the Russians have spent the past 25 years — and particularly the past two years — engaged in a massive and exceedingly impressive military build up and modernization in preparation for an eventual war against the US/NATO. In the past 2+ years, t hey have methodically destroyed Ukraine’s three successive proxy armies with one arm tied behind their back. Their force generation, combat training, and military industrial production far exceed the entire NATO bloc combined. I appreciate the degree to which military analytical tourists like yourself have been thoroughly propagandized by Hollywood fantasies and the western state-controlled media, but wars are not fought and won by imaginary narratives and flashy superheroes. They are won by raw firepower — a metric by which the tripartite alliance of Russia, China, and Iran now possess supremacy over their hubris-drunken enemies in the rapidly eroding American Empire. There is only one sane option at this point: relinquish empire and make peace with the resurgent civilizational powers of the earth. Otherwise much of modern human civilization itself is at risk of being destroyed, and it will take centuries to recover. Ukraine Can’t Win, Will Schryver, Twitter

There’s also the niggling issue of “magazine depth” which refers to the stockpiles of weaponry and munitions required to outlast and eventually defeat the enemy. Here’s Schryver again:

There is no doubt Israel (just like its great benefactor, the United States) is, in the context of a “big war”, capable of executing several damaging strikes against a potential peer or near-peer adversary. But, throughout the imperial domain, there are fatal weaknesses that exist right now, and which cannot be turned into strengths at any point in the near- or medium-term. The first is what military types call “magazine depth”: munitions stockpiles sufficient to offensively overwhelm, defensively defeat, and strategically outlast the enemy. Neither the United States, nor any of its largely impotent client nations, possess “magazine depth” sufficient to prosecute anything more than a relatively brief campaign against their potential peer adversaries: Russia, China, Iran — and all or any of their lesser-power partners. Magazine Depth, Will Schryver, Twitter

What Schryver is saying is as profound as it is alarming. The United States and NATO will not prevail in a war with Russia because they do not have the industrial capacity, the force generation, the combat training, the magazine depth or the overall firepower of Russia. By every metric, they are the inferior fighting force. Additionally, Russia has already killed or captured hundreds of thousands of the “the best-trained and best-equipped soldiers in the Ukrainian army”. That army has already been effectively annihilated. The troops in the trenches today are poorly trained, unskilled, low-morale rookies who are being slaughtered by the thousands. Does anyone seriously believe that NATO involvement can turn this train around and secure a victory? Here’s more from Schryver:

The Russians have demonstrated that they can routinely shoot down ANY species of strike missile the US/NATO can field against them — not all of them all of the time, but most of them most of the time. And they get better and better at it as time goes on.

Indeed, over the past few months it is increasingly becoming “all of them most of the time”…. As Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported earlier this week:

“We are using air defence systems in a comprehensive manner during the special military operation. This significantly improved their responsiveness and strike range. Over the last six months, we have shot down 1,062 of NATO’s HIMARS rockets, short-range and cruise missiles, and guided bombs.”

No other military on the planet has previously attested this level of capability. The US does not have it, and is at least a decade away from developing it….

The current front-line inventory of US tactical ballistic missiles and sea- and air-launched cruise missiles would present no greater technical challenge for Russian air defenses than what they have already seen and defeated in the Ukraine War. The significance of this battlefield development defies exaggeration. It alters the war-fighting calculus that has been assumed for many decades. Empty Quiver, Will Schryver, Twitter

Some readers may find it hard to believe that NATO would rush into a war without thoroughly researching its prospects for success. But that is precisely what’s happening here. Blustery Uncle Sam foolishly believes that he will win as soon as he “throws its hat in the ring. He can’t accept that the scales are tipped in Russia’s favor and that his entry into the war will be met with a thunderous response. But that is the reality he faces. Here’s Schryver one last time:

NATO would face enormous problems of coordination, doctrine and force generation, even if it could agree an objective. Its troops are not trained for this kind of war and have never operated together…..

(they) would be hard-pressed to field a force more powerful than the reported nine Brigades trained and equipped by the West for the Great Offensive of 2023, which just bounced off the Russian forces without achieving anything of note….

The US has no ground combat units in Europe remotely suited to high-intensity land warfare…. Given enough time, money, political will and organization, most things are possible. But there is no chance… of NATO assembling a force which would constitute anything more than a nuisance to the Russians, while putting many lives in danger…… NATO’s Phantom Armies, Will Schryver, Substack

I am convinced that there is a delusional element within the foreign policy establishment that have convinced themselves that NATO will defeat Russia if they face each other on a battlefield in Ukraine. Schryver’s analysis helps to show why that’s not going to happen.

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This article was originally published on The Unz Review.

Michael Whitney is a renowned geopolitical and social analyst based in Washington State. He initiated his career as an independent citizen-journalist in 2002 with a commitment to honest journalism, social justice and World peace.

He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  

Featured image is from TUR