No, 2024 election turnout doesn’t prove 2020 election was rigged for Biden | Fact check

The claim: Record-breaking turnout in 2024 election proves 2020 election was stolen

A Nov. 6 Facebook post (direct link, archive link) uses an image showing 2024 election results to claim President Joe Biden’s 2020 election vote totals were illegitimate.

The image shows President-elect Donald Trump with 71 million votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 66 million, and then two different users try to use it to prove election fraud benefiting different parties.

“How can the total number of voters be less this year than there were in 2020 after we’ve had the biggest turnout than ever before? (sic)” reads on-screen text included in the image, which is a screenshot of a post on X. “Demand a recount and an investigation. #DoNotConcedeKamala.”

The Facebook post’s caption, however, claims this shows fraud by Democrats, “Thank you for validating 2020 was a Strategic and Special Operation. ‘Joe’ got 81 million votes and there were more voters this year and President Trump’s current count is 71 million.”

The post was shared more than 400 times in a week and a half.

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Our rating: False

While votes are still being counted, there is no evidence there was record-breaking turnout in the 2024 presidential election. The comparison in the post is based on partial voting tallies and isn’t proof of fraud benefiting either party. Numerous recounts and audits have affirmed Biden won the 2020 election.

2020 election repeatedly shown to be legitimate

While Trump’s victory in the 2024 election tamped down claims from the political right that the 2024 election was rigged, it hasn’t stopped attempts to relitigate the past – particularly the 2020 election.

But the idea that the 2020 election was stolen is flatly false, and USA TODAY has repeatedly debunked such claims since the days after that year’s final votes were cast and counted.

Numerous people and institutions involved in monitoring that election said there was no proof of widespread fraud, including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Trump’s then-Attorney General Bill Barr, then-Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, multiple courts around the country, dozens of outside election security experts and a group of conservative legal scholars.

One of the claims addressed in the aftermath of the election was that Biden’s vote total was inflated through fraud. But the claim was found to be baseless, and multiple recounts and audits further verified Biden’s victory and vote total before Congress made the results official.

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2024 election not expected to be record turnout

The post also claims there was record voter turnout in 2024, but that was nowhere near accurate at the time of the post, is still wrong and is not expected to be true, according to reported vote totals and at least one expert forecast.

Some 158.4 million votes were cast in the 2020 election, of which 81.2 million went to Biden, according to the Federal Election Commission. That far outpaces the 141.9 million counted votes on Nov. 6 (when the Facebook post was shared) for the 2024 election, according to an archived version of results posted by NBC News. It also exceeds the 153.4 million counted votes for the 2024 election on a Cook Political Report tracker as of the afternoon of Nov. 19.    

That kind of change in vote totals is in line with historical trends. A paper from the MIT Election Lab showed that in 2020, 10.8% of the total official vote was “overtime vote” – tallied beyond what was reported in the morning edition of The New York Times on the Thursday after Election Day and included in the official final results. A similar increase in 2024 would put the final vote count close to, but not beyond, the 2020 total. Election analyst Nate Silver projected the final tally will be around 155.3 million votes in a Nov. 14 post on X, formerly Twitter.

USA TODAY reached out to the social media user who shared the claim for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

PolitiFact also debunked the claim.

Our fact-check sources

• MIT Election Lab, April 2021, The Blue Shift in the 2020 Election
• Cook Political Report, accessed Nov. 18, 2024 National Popular Vote Tracker
•  Matt Blaze, Nov. 12, 2020, Scientists say no credible evidence of computer fraud in the 2020 election outcome, but policymakers must work with experts to improve confidence
• Federal Election Commission, October 2022, Federal Elections 2020: Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives
• NBC News (Internet Archive), archived Nov. 6, 2024, President Results: Trump wins   
• Nate Silver, Nov. 14, X post  
• Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Nov. 12, 2020, Joint Statement from Elections Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council & the Election Infrastructure Sector Coordinating Executive Committees
• Lost Not Stolen, July 2022, Report
• Mitch McConnell, Jan. 6, 2021, McConnell Remarks on the Electoral College Count
• USA TODAY, Aug. 10, 2021, Fact check: No evidence of 8 million ‘excess’ Biden votes from 2020 election
• USA TODAY, Dec. 14, 2020, Attorney General William Barr resigns after clashes with Trump, still defends president
• USA TODAY, Dec. 11, 2020, A look at what several state supreme courts said about rejecting attempts to overturn Biden’s election win
• USA TODAY, Nov. 8, Donald Trump won elections in 2016 and 2024 – not 2020 | Fact check
• USA TODAY, May 15, False claim that federal agency revealed fraud in 2020 presidential election | Fact check
• USA TODAY, Nov. 4, 2022, Fact check: 2020 presidential election results are still valid, Biden is legitimate winner
• USA TODAY, Jan. 6, 2022, Fact check: How we know the 2020 election results were legitimate, not ‘rigged’ as Donald Trump claims
• USA TODAY, Dec. 31, 2020, Fact check: These 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden’s victory
• USA TODAY, Dec. 15, 2020, Fact check: Joe Biden legally won presidential election, despite persistent contrary claims
• USA TODAY, Nov. 17, 2020, Fact check: What’s true about the 2020 election, vote counting, Electoral College 

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