The Texas Measles Outbreak Is A Warning. Wait Until More Anti-Vax Plans Kick In

The measles outbreak in western Texas continues to grow. That’s no surprise in an area with many unvaccinated children and a very infectious virus that spreads through the air.

The most recent count today was 48 infections, up from 24 only three days ago. All the measles cases were in unvaccinated people, and thirteen are ill enough to require hospitalization. We should expect many more cases.

Vaccination rates for kindergarteners have fallen well below the 95% rate needed for herd immunity. The lowest states are Alaska (78%), Wisconsin (82.6%), and Georgia (83.2%). Nine states were recently below 90%. Exemption rates are gradually increasing, to 3.3% in the 2023-24 school year. In 14 jurisdictions, the rate was more than 5%. In 2024, 8% of parents felt that vaccination requirements were not necessary. Exemption rates were highest in Idaho (14.3%), Alaska (9.5%), Utah (9.3%), Arizona (8.5%), Oregon (8.9%), and Wisconsin (8%).

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr Has Been Anti-Vax For Decades

RFK Jr was just confirmed as secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. His appointment has many people concerned about various of issues, including what his actions will mean for vaccinations and infectious diseases.

While RFK Jr has said he would not take vaccines away from people, he would likely discourage their use. He has said that vaccines are unsafe, cause autism, and that “the COVID shots are a crime against humanity.”

If he discourages measles vaccines, we will see deaths and disability come back from that infection. Pneumonia occurs in 1 in 20, encephalitis (brain swelling) in 1/1000, and deaths in 1-3/1000. One of the saddest things is kids being killed because they were too young (or immunocompromised) to be vaccinated but were infected by a person ill with measles who chose not to be vaccinated.

An NPR/KFF article by Arthur Allen cites a list by James Hodge, a public health law expert at Arizona State University. This list outlines some of the ways RFK Jr could undermine vaccination programs. The list includes delaying approvals, spreading misinformation, and crippling the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. NVIC is essential in protecting pharmaceutical companies from lawsuits, and would lead them to leave vaccines development and production.

Stacking the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices with vaccine opponents could lead to withdrawal of recommendations for vaccination. Private insurers cover the cost of vaccinations approved by the ACIP, so opponents could make the cost of vaccines prohibitively expensive to individuals.

In November 2023, RFK Jr., speaking to the anti-vax Children’s Health Defense, said, “We’re going to give infectious disease a break for about eight years” to focus on chronic diseases.

We’re facing the potential of a major bird flu pandemic. Will RFK Jr block the development and approval of effective vaccines?

Other Threats To Vaccinations

Florida has been a leader in pushing back against vaccines and masking mandates. In 2023, Governor DeSantis signed a “medical freedom” bill (SB 252) primarily directed against COVID-19 vaccines. However, the provisions also include all emergency use authorizations and mRNA-based vaccines. Florida’s surgeon general, Joseph LaDapo, has been very vocal in spreading misinformation.

Kennedy is not alone in threatening vaccinations.

Last year, while campaigning, Trump pledged to cut funding to schools with vaccine requirements or mask mandates.

In Idaho last year, a public health department stopped giving COVID-19 vaccines after the Southwest District Health Department’s board voted to ban the immunizations. In part, they questioned the safety of the vaccine, although there is considerable evidence the vaccine has saved millions of lives.

As of 2022, thirteen states banned vaccine mandates for workers, including those in healthcare.

This week, on Wednesday, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., called on the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to reverse its approval of COVID-19 vaccines.

And besides the direct threats to vaccinations, Kennedy has vowed to fire hundreds of researchers at the FDA and NIH. How will any of these actions help us maintain our scientific lead or serve us in the next pandemic?