The Trump oil purchase from Putin is actually a win-win for the United States and Ukraine

October 13, 2026 china, iran, russia, trump

In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not only stepped up his attacks on Russian oil refineries to reduce Russia’s ability to wage war; he has also launched attacks on President Donald Trump for his deal for Russia to, “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace,” to increase supply and lower prices of diesel for American consumers. Proverbially, Zelensky is cutting off his nose to spite Donald Trump’s face.

For Trump, Zelensky’s attacks are viewed as betrayal, and they are particularly offensive because of the billions of dollars in aid and military equipment the U.S. under Trump has already committed to Ukraine’s defense. For Zelensky, “the deal signaled to Russia that ‘it could simply keep attacking’ Ukraine.” For Democrats, the deal has only increased their burning hatred for Trump. And as for Republican politicians, they are feebly fumbling the deal like a candle burning at both ends, to appear supportive of Trump without also getting their fingers burned.

But for a more objective and pragmatic evaluation of Trump’s deal to purchase diesel from Russia, seemingly in direct contradiction to his policy that has developed and enforced worldwide sanctions levied against Russia, the totality of the current state of geo-political realities must be considered.

First, a simple yet reasonable equation that outlines the logic of how Trump’s deal to purchase Russian diesel fuel may be considered a win-win for the United States and Ukraine might be helpful:

Russia uses its vast supply of oil to fuel its weapons of war against Ukraine.
Ukraine attacks Russia’s oil refineries to reduce Russia’s ability to wage war against Ukraine.
U.S. buys 300,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel to increase supply and lower prices for U.S. and worldwide diesel consumers.
Russia has 300,000 tons (significantly more in months to come) less diesel fuel to use in its war on Ukraine.
Ukraine benefits by Russia’s diminished ability to wage war against it.
Russia has lots of cash from the deal to buy more oil, weapons, and/or foreign fighting mercenaries.
OR DOES IT?

A 2022 fact sheet of the U.S. Department of State states,

Sanctions and export controls are having significant and long-lasting consequences on Russia’s defense industrial base. Since February 2022, the United States and our partners and Allies have coordinated to use export controls and sanctions to restrict Russia’s access to advanced technology, which has degraded the Russian weapons industry’s ability to produce and stockpile weapons to replace those that have been destroyed in the war.

These sanctions and export controls have remained in effect and have been strengthened in the meantime.

The fact sheet also outlines how, “Major supply shortages for Russian forces in Ukraine are forcing Russia to turn to less technologically advanced countries such as Iran and North Korea for supplies and equipment.” China, though more technologically advanced than the former, must also necessarily be included, at least as facilitators, in this list of black-market suppliers.

How much revenue Russia will receive for its diesel fuel remains undisclosed at this time, (About $1 billion has been given as an approximate estimate). However, Russia’s ability to convert sale proceeds from the sale of diesel fuel to the United States into fuel, weapons, and mercenaries from these rogue countries is also greatly curtailed.

A January 15, 2025, Treasury Depart press release announced,

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury is moving against Russian efforts to evade U.S. sanctions. This action targets a sanctions evasion scheme established between actors in Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to facilitate cross-border payments for sensitive goods.

Advertisement

Trump’s war with Iran, and the ongoing military and economic forces applied by his administration on Iran, has not only crippled Iran’s ability to export oil and weapons to militant terrorist groups and to Russia. When these factors are coupled with the existing sanctions and export controls already in place against Russia, and the Treasury’s efforts to paralyze the “sanctions evasion scheme, Russia is left with a lot of cash from the diesel sale, but few places to spend it.

So, while Zelensky’s reasoning may on its face may seem reasonable and justified, when considered more broadly against the full complement of existing sanctions, export controls, and sanction evasion preventions against both Russia and Iran, that reasoning is revealed to be mostly baseless. And Zelensky’s continued hits on Russian refineries against Trump’s wishes, seems less based on a desire to weaken Russia, but to weaken Trump heading into mid-terms.

Image generated by ChatGPT.

***